By Joe Manganiello
5. Cleveland Cavilers (’11-’12 record: 21-45)
Best player:
Kyrie Irving did not just silence any doubters heading into his rookie campaign, he eliminated them. Irving might be the best number one overall selection since Derrick Rose in 2008, showing poise and efficiency that John Wall and Blake Griffin, despite their obvious talents, have not consistently brought to the table.
While Wall was the league’s worst three-point shooter last season and incredibly erratic with the basketball, Irving posted polished shooting splits of .469/.399/.872 while besting Wall by nearly a full turnover per game. Yes, Blake Griffin has averaged 21, 11 and 3 in his first two seasons, numbers that first-year Irving simply can not compete with. But Griffin also cannot shoot free throws, does not block shots or collect steals particularly well and turns the ball over far too much for a power forward.
Irving is an ideal guard to build around, both on and off the court. He is probably only a year or two away from all-star contention.
Starting lineup:
The Cavaliers will trot out Anderson Varejao for the ninth season and he will be the opening day starting center for the third consecutive season. Varejao, when healthy, can be highly effective as both a rebounder and a finisher around the basket. The issue with the Brazilian is keeping him on the court, as he has missed over 62 percent of the team’s games since the ’10-’11 season. With rookies Tyler Zeller and Micheal Eric as the only true centers behind Varejao, it is essential the veteran stay healthy all season long.
The only other guaranteed starter for Cleveland is second-year player Tristan Thompson. He averaged 8.2 ppg and 6.5 rpg last season in 23 minutes, but he averaged 9.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg in 27.6 minutes per game during April last season. The Cavs will need him to replace veteran Antwan Jamison in the offense, which means Thompson will have to give the team more field goal attempts and points.
The wing positions will be made up of five players: Alonzo Gee, Omri Casspi, C.J. Miles, Daniel Gibson and Dion Waiters. Gee and Miles appear to be the starters for the Cavs out of the gate, but all five will get plenty of action. Gee is coming off of his best season as a pro, averaging 10.6 ppg and 5.1 rpg. He is not a great shooter or playmaker, but has earned a reputation as a plus-defender. Miles comes from the other end of the spectrum; he is the team’s best shooter but provides little else.
Bench:
Lottery pick Dion Waiters will play the sixth man role that he thrived in at Syracuse University. Waiters has great quickness and can score in spurts, which could make him deadly as a weapon off the bench for head coach Byron Scott at either guard spot. Waiters will be among the team leaders in points this year and will see plenty of minutes.
Whether or not below average guards Donald Sloan and Jeremy Pargo make the final roster, whatever bench minutes in the backcourt Waiters does not gobble up will be handed to Daniel Gibson. Entering his seventh season with the Cavs, Gibson’s experience, underrated three-point shot and low turnover numbers all point to him being an ideal backup guard behind Irving. The guard trio of Irving/Waiters/Gibson will be amongst the best in the eastern conference.
Casspi will see minutes behind Gee, looking to return to form from behind the arc. He shot .372 in ’10-’11 but just .315 last season. If Casspi can shore up his below average free throw shooting and continue to be an effective rebounder, he will earn the roughly 24 minutes per game he has averaged for his career.
In the frontcourt, Zeller will be the primary backup for Varejao at center. At power forward, Samardo Samuels will make the roster and see the floor night in and night out, if for no other reason other than potential. That leaves young players Jon Leuer and Luke Harongody to battle for a roster spot, with the edge going to Leuer because of his advanced perimeter skills for his size.
Bottom line:
The Cavs will be very young and small. They lack big play potential. Inexperienced players Thompson and Waiters will have to score for this team and take pressure off Irving, who will undoubtedly be on double duty as the team’s leading passer AND scorer. The team will probably have a bottom dwelling defense once again (26th in points allowed, 100.2 ppg) and after losing Antwan Jamison, at best, they will remain scoring in the middle 90s, if not fall off to the low 90s or high 80s.
Beyond Irving, there is nothing guaranteed about this team. They could overachieve and finish 9th in the east or struggle mightily and falter to 15th. It all depends on the coaching job by Byron Scott and the development of their young roster around Irving, who is also, let us not forget, in just his second season.
Pre-season expectations and grade:
C-
Irving will probably be the best player in the league left out of the playoffs while the team around him earns another lottery pick, although they should improve upon last season’s .318 winning percentage.
4. Detroit Pistons (’11-’12 record: 25-41)
Best player:
Entering the pivotal third season, Greg Monroe might have the brightest future of any young big man in the league. With excellent size, durability and intangibles, Monroe is an ideal player to build around. With his superb floor vision and passing skills, he compares well to Pau Gasol, just in a thicker casing. Monroe will make his first push at all-star consideration and the Pistons will look to take a step toward the playoffs.
Starting lineup:
The Pistons are crowded at the forward positions, but it appears that head coach Lawrence Frank is prepared to start Tayshaun Prince and Jason Maxiell as long as they remain in Detroit. Tayshaun Prince is entering his eleventh season with the Pistons and if they hold onto him for the duration of the season, he figures to once again lead the team’s efforts defensively and provide a decent offensive option as both a shooter and a slasher. Maxiell is a solid rebounder and post presence.
Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight are the obvious choices to start at the guard positions. While they combine for a fairly average backcourt in today’s NBA, Knight specifically has a lot of upside. He could conceivably improve into a 15, 5 and 5 type-point guard in ’12-’13.
Bench:
The Pistons have an odd roster, as they have 15 guaranteed contracts but only a handful of players who are definitively in it for the long haul. Recent draft pick Andre Drummond plays the same position as the franchise player, so his best value to the organization might be as trade bait down the road (a potential sign-and-trade for a James Harden type player could be the plan for the summer of 2013).
Sidebar: If you are Oklahoma City and you do not win the championship with Harden, would you turn down a deal that sends Harden to Detroit for Brandon Knight, Andre Drummond and possibly draft picks? End sidebar.
Forwards Charlie Villaneuva, Jonas Jerebko and Corey Maggette all command playing time as long as they remain on the team, but Villaneuva wore out his welcome in Detroit years ago, Jerebko will not ever be more than a reserve forward and Maggette is in Detroit as a personified version of his contract, which is set to expire – and make the Pistons $10.9 million richer – at the end of the season.
Veteran Will Bynum will backup Knight at point guard. Bynum is not much of a physical specimen, but can score the basketball when given the minutes. He is an average basketball player but can be a quality backup for an eastern conference team such as Detroit. Kim English is a rookie wing with promising defensive and shooting potential. He will get playing time for the Pistons.
Bottom line:
The Pistons are a very young team with experience in strange areas. Tayshaun Prince is more than capable of leading Detroit defensively and Monroe is an up and coming stud on the offensive end. If the Pistons can repeat their success defensively from a year ago – 14th in points allowed (95.7 ppg), 13th in opponent field goals made and 6th in opponent three-point field goals made – then they will have no trouble with at least matching their .379 winning percentage from a year ago.
To improve on that mark and make a push at a low playoff seed, they would have to make drastic improvements offensively, which equates to more touches and shot attempts for Monroe. If Monroe earns his first all-star bid this season, it probably means the Pistons are doing all the right things.
With all this said, the Pistons are going to have a hard time finishing ahead of Milwaukee in both the divisional standings and conference standings, as Milwaukee is plainly more talented. Even Atlanta and Toronto are more talented. The Pistons will more than likely end up with about the same winning percentage as last year – which would net about 31 wins – with their eyes on ’13-’14 as their big break out season.
Pre-season expectations and grade:
C
The Pistons are a year away from making a legitimate playoff run and despite being an above-average defensive team, their limited offense will make it difficult to win the biggest games.
Love the podcast: https://dmholcomb.podomatic.com/entry/2012-10-27T12_15_24-07_00
I have a tough time seeing Varejao as a center. I realize that is his assigned position, but it is hard to put him in the same category as Shaq, Kareem, Hakee, Bill Russell, so on and so on. Almost forgot Wilt.
It will be interesting to watch the development of Michael Eric and Tyler Zeller. Both of them could provide suitable complements to Uncle Drew. Let Irving penetrate and dish to those could work well. I’m not suggesting they will be a division contending squad, but will be enjoyable to watch. Eric could be a potential All-Defensive player in a couple of years. Boobie knocks down some jumpers, and the Cavs get out of the basement.
I am hearing great things about Drummond. Wondering how that all fits together with the frontcourt Detroit has. Signing Ben Gordon had tobe the worst decision ever for Detroit. Wonder if that contract is eating them up(?)
I now live an hour from Cleveland and get the joy of Cleveland sports talk radio. Everyone hated the Waiters pick. I do, too. I see him in the same vein as Ben Gordon. He has to be in the right situation and even if he finds it, he is shoddy at best. He’ll have some explosive games but nothing consistent. And, with that said, playing with Irving, who is as exactly as you described him, will hurt. Irving will not let Waiters play like a ballhog. I love Zeller with the Cavs because I think he’ll benefit playing with Varejo. Think he can have a similar game style. The Cavs are a signing away from being legit in my eyes (call me crazy). With Varejo healthy, they need an uber-athletic wing. That guy isn’t Waiters. Waiters is someone who would play well with a PG that is methodical; a PG not so quick but more meticulous in creating gaps, pinches from wings, etc. Waiters then complements that with explosiveness. I just don’t see it with Irving, who can change a game with his intelligent explosiveness to the rim. Waiters is going to be like that group of hot chicks at a bar that have that one stumbling drunk friend who is obnoxious and acts like garlic in Translyvania. He’s going to take great Irving possessions and suck the life out of them. Waiters would be great with a PG like Andre Miller or Ricky Rubio in my humble opinion.
Monroe is a great player to watch. Like you said, superb court vision. Rare is the big man that can distribute like him.
Casey – I think you just gave me a good example of anastrophe to use in class.
Hahaha
“Waiters is going to be like that group of hot chicks at a bar that have that one stumbling drunk friend who is obnoxious and acts like garlic in Translyvania. He’s going to take great Irving possessions and suck the life out of them.”
HELMET STICKER!
Observations from Cavs-Wizards:
–Kyrie Irving is a professional basketball player. He’s pretty good.
–Dion Waiters (hate to say it) looked great. He made great basketball decisions and was another guard to attack on penetration and made timely dump-offs to Thompson and Varejo. He had 17 points but box score says 0 assists and that cannot be right.
–Tristan Thompson has improved greatly. He just kept it simple and realizes he plays with two explosive guards, so he stands in the short corner and makes the timely cut or duck-in. He and Varejo had 33 rebounds!
–The Cavs’ second unit is horrible. They had a lineup out there that surrendered the lead around 78-78. I think it was Gibson, Miles, Sloan, and Gee. Yeah – recognize any of those. For whatever reason Scott had this crew on the floor at the same time and they single-handed gave game back to Wizards. I think there were some pick-up teams at Nazareth Academy on Sunday nights that could have beaten that lineup.
–Bradley Beal is just terrible. He looked scared, intimidated, unskilled. I am overreacting and giving that pick the bust of the year.
–The Washington Wizards might be this year’s Bobcats. What’s up with Wall? Injured?
Haha. I just realized how contradictory I am. My insight of the week completely bashes Waiters and now I’m praising him for tonight’s performance. Granted, this performance was against an NBA JV team. I have too much of an emotional reaction to basketball anyway to be objective.
Dang I love Kevin Garnett
https://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/article/media_slots/photos/000/595/791/KG_IgnoresAllen_original.gif?1351643653