Six Divisions in Six Weeks: Atlantic (part two)

By Joe Manganiello

3. New York Knicks (’11-’12 record: 36-30)

Best Player:
Carmelo Anthony finished two full points below his career ppg mark last season, in large part because of the strike-shortened season, a coaching change and injuries. His field goal percentage (.430) was the lowest since his second season in Denver. Carmelo was taking 18.6 shots a night this past season, the fourth-lowest total of his career, meaning he was not over-shooting, rather just taking less quality shots.

His stats in New York have certainly been a by-product of the failing partnership with he and Amar’e Stoudemire. Both forwards look for the same shots and neither Mike D’Antoni nor head coach Mike Woodson have figured out a scheme for both where they can coexist. It is essential that Carmelo, clearly the superior player between them, demands that the offense run through him this season. It is the Knicks best shot at progressing.

Starting Lineup:
The Knicks will once again have major roster changes to get used too early in the season, as both starting guard spots will be filled by players who were not Knicks last season. Raymond Felton will reclaim the job that he nearly turned into an all-star selection back in ’10-’11 and Ronnie Brewer will provide the Knicks with a lockdown defender on the wing with playoff experience. If Felton can keep his turnovers down and shoot a respectable percentage, he will be more than capable of logging starters minutes and sharing the ball with Carmelo in the biggest moments of the game. Brewer will play a similar role with the Knicks as he did with Chicago. He could play upward of 35 minutes a night as long as his jump shot is falling, but if it is not, then J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert will take away a lot of his second-half action.

Amar’e and Tyson once again create among the league’s most talented frontcourts. Whether or not Amar’e is capable of excelling alongside Carmelo is absolutely debatable, but his talent alone will keep him in the discussion for all-star consideration. Chandler will once again be called upon by Woodson to anchor the defense, a unit that surprisingly finished in the top 11 last season in points allowed and opponents field goal percentage.

Bench:
The Knicks, who were one of the league’s youngest teams just two seasons ago, are suddenly very old. Considering that Stoudemire and Chandler have played in the league for over a decade and that Carmelo, Brewer and Felton are established veterans, the Knicks added forwards Kurt Thomas (40) and Marcus Camby (38) and point guard Jason Kidd (39). You wonder if the Knicks are confusing playing experience and age with a thorough team concept and identity.

Even still, Thomas and Camby are more than capable of spelling the Knicks high-payed forwards for a few minutes here and there, while Kidd will be a wonderful teacher behind Felton at the point guard position.

The Knicks return their wing depth from a year ago, as J.R. Smith and Steve Novak will see plenty of action. Iman Shumpert will miss a large portion of the season recovering from an ACL tear – his injury and time-table are very similar to what Derrick Rose is dealing with – but should have enough flier miles during the second half of the regular season to be a factor in the post-season.

Bottom Line:
For a team with arguably the league’s best pure scorer, best defensive big man and with an incredible mix of veteran experience and youth, there are an awful lot of question marks. Can they share the ball? Can they stay healthy? Can they continue to improve defensively? It just seems like the question marks will weigh the Knicks down.

The Knicks will be a great home team that wins the games they are supposed too, but unless they take a huge step forward in Woodson’s first full season as head coach, they will not be much better than an average road team that will continue to falter against the Celtics and the Heat.

Preseason expectations, grade:
The Knicks will peak and valley with the best of them, earn a middle playoff seed for the third year in a row and, if they are lucky, see the second round.

B

2. Philadelphia 76ers (’11-’12 record: 35-31)

Best Player:
Having traded away veteran swingman Andre Iguodala in order to acquire him, the fate of the 76ers franchise belongs to arguably the league’s most polarizing player, Andrew Bynum.

Coming off his best season and his healthiest season in five years, Bynum secured his position as a top two center in the league and as unquestionably the scariest offensive threat on the block the league has seen since Shaq in his prime. Bynum shot .558 for the sixth consecutive season, and when he is consistently getting touches, he demands the attention of multiple defenders.

Still only 24-years-old and finally the number one scoring threat on his team, Bynum will finally have an opportunity to prove just how special he is in both the short term and long term. If his time in often troubled time in Los Angeles figures to precede him, it would seem whatever becomes of his tenure in Philadelphia will define him. If he evolves into the Eastern Conference’s best big man as expected, the 76ers will play a lot of meaningful basketball for years to come and Bynum will go down as a star.

Starting Lineup:
Although adding Bynum and handing Turner a starting position all but guarantees a playoff spot on its own, the 76ers do have question marks in the starting lineup.

First and foremost, they will be asking Spencer Hawes – a seven-foot one-inch, bruising center for all of his amateur and professional career – to play power forward alongside Bynum. Head coach Doug Collins believes Hawes “can shoot the ball; I’m OK with him stepping out and shooting the three” and is “such a facilitator who can pass the ball and find cutters on the floor.”

Hawes has career shooting splits of .468/.301/.650 and a career rate of 1.7 assists per game. He has averaged over 11 ppg just once in his career. It is strange why Collins seems to have so much confidence that Hawes, an average NBA center and athlete, can somehow channel a Pau Gasol-like game next to Bynum.

Turner will do really well in his first full season as a starter, as he and Holiday will continue to grow together as one of the most athletic PG/Wing combinations in the league. Both players need to improve their shooting touch and cut down turnovers.

Rounding off the starting lineup is veteran shooting guard Jason Richardson, who does not do much else besides catch and shoot these days. He is coming off his worst season as a professional, shooting his lowest three-point percentage (.368) since ’06-’07 and averaging just 11.6 ppg, the lowest of his career. The 76ers need Richardson to hit 2.5 threes a night at a respectable percentage, which is far from a guarantee.

Bench:
The 76ers have depth on the wing, which is what made the decision to move all-star small forward Iguodala for Bynum such a good one. Coming off the bench for Philly is Nick Young and Thaddeus Young, both quality wings. Nick Young could overtake Richardson’s starting role by season’s end, especially if he connects from behind the arc better than Richardson. Thaddeus Young will be asked to score a dozen points in sixth or seventh man minutes for the third season in a row.

Adding Kwame Brown was a good move, as he has been, all “Kwame Brown jokes” aside, one of the leauge’s better backup centers over the last four or five seasons. He is a big body who will do a good job of rebounding and spelling Bynum in physical games. Brown will see most of the post minutes off the bench, but young forwards Lavoy Allen and Arnett Moultrie will battle for playing time behind Hawes.

One of the more interesting bench options in the entire conference is Dorell Wright, who started 143 of a possible 148 games in Golden State the last two seasons, but who quickly lost shots and playing time to the emerging Clay Thompson and the veteran Brandon Rush. Wright is only two years removed from a 16.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg and 3.0 apg season. If Wright can find playing time when Holiday and Richardson are off the floor and Turner slides down to play point guard, it is possible Wright could put up Lou Williams-like numbers off the bench for the 76ers.

This team very noticeably lacks point guards, as Holiday is a combo-guard in his own right and Royal Ivey and Maalik Wayns are currently listed as his backups. They will not see much time, as Turner figures to be the only player on roster worth trusting to bring up the basketball after Holiday. Philadelphia has a lengthy, tall team, but when Holiday is not on the floor, they will be very venerable to the press.

Bottom Line:
This team is not perfect and lacks experience. They are young in traditionally the wrong spots and do not figure to be a great shooting team, aside from Bynum inside of ten feet. But if Bynum stays healthy and excels as a number one option, the 76ers might just be the Heat’s biggest adversary in the Eastern Conference. They have plenty of athleticism on the wing, a talented point guard and a big man that is nearly impossible to guard one-on-one. The 76ers figure to be very dangerous.

Preseason expectations, grade:
The 76ers will battle the Celtics all season for the division title and home court in the second round of the playoffs, and the winner will play (and lose to) Miami in the conference finals.
B

1. Boston Celtics (’11-’12 record: 39-27)

Best Player:
Rondo is considered by some to be the best point guard – pure or otherwise – in the league. Others deem he is the product of playing with hall-of-famers and a mental case waiting to implode. Even if Rondo falls somewhere in between, anyone who watched him string together a second 11+ assist per game season and average 17.3 ppg, 11.9 apg and 6.7 rpg in the playoffs knows that Rondo is a special player.

Without Ray Allen for the first time since his rookie season – which may or may not be for the best, considering their clear disdain for each other – Rondo is undoubtedly the biggest target in both the C’s backcourt and in the entire organization, well besides the struggling GM, Danny Ainge. If Rondo and Ainge can keep the Celtics in the upper-echelon of the conference, they will remain in Boston for the long haul.

With that said, a scenario where the C’s let Philadelphia take the division and the two New York teams outplay the Celtics late in the season is not that unbelievable. In that scenario, it would mean Ainge’s job and could also be the demise of Rondo in Boston too. The pressure is on in Beantown. Is this a make it or break it year for the NBA’s most successful franchise? It appears so.

Starting lineup:
Kevin Garnett, Brandon Bass and Paul Pierce will join Rondo once again in the starting lineup. Replacing Ray Allen and his deadly jump shot will be Courtney Lee and veteran Jason Terry. Lee figures to start, allowing Terry to come off the bench like he did in Dallas. Lee is admired by plenty of basketball people for his defense, and figures to be a good starter for the Celtics, at least until promising young player Avery Bradley returns from injury.

Bench:
Terry will give the Celtics the sixth man type they have been looking for in recent seasons, as his ability to create will be very welcomed. So often last season the Celtics offense thrived or fell in the hands of Rondo, as he was forced to create and control just about everything. Terry will make Rondo that much more affective.

Wing players like Kenyon Dooling and rookie Kris Joseph may or may not see the floor, but the player that Celtic’s management is counting on in ’12-’13 is Jeff Green. After missing all of last season recovering from a heart injury – yes, he is attempting to return from a heart injury – Green figures to play this year. Green was averaging over 15 ppg in three consecutive seasons with Oklahoma City before being acquired by Boston. In 26 games with Boston, he averaged 9.8 ppg and just 3.3 rpg in a fraction of the minutes he saw in OKC.

How Doc Rivers chooses to use Green will probably define the season, as his talent and frame (six-foot nine-inch) make him an invaluable piece battling against divisional foes like the Miami Heat (LeBron James), New York Knicks (Carmelo Anthony) and Brooklyn Nets (Joe Johnson).

The Celtics are very young down low, as draftees Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo both figure to get big minutes. Jason Collins and Chris Wilcox provide veteran depth and experience in the frontcourt, but this team will not confuse anybody with the 1999 Spurs. Garnett and Bass will be the only bigs on the team scoring in double figures night in and night out. The Celtics were the worst rebounding team in basketball last season, in large part because Garnett is forced to play out of position at center and the rest of the forward crop is average at best.

Bottom Line:
Even with losing Ray Allen, dealing with preseason injuries (Bradley, Green) and age, the Celtics figure to be a in a great position. While every other member of their division is adjusting to huge roster changes, the Celtics nucleus is remains more or less in tact. They replace Allen with Terry, Lee and affectively Green, who missed a full season. The Celtics will be challenging defensively while rebounding and scoring just enough to be a contender in the eastern conference for another year.

Preseason expectations, grade:
The Celtics will win 50+ games and take a top 4 seed in the conference again, looking to move through the playoffs and into the conference finals “one last time” for the third time since their championship run in 2008.
B+

Next: Central