Six Divisions in Six Weeks: Atlantic (Part One)

By Joe Manganiello

5. Toronto Raptors (’11-’12 record: 23-43)

Best Player:

In some ways, the Raptors best player is former lottery pick DeMar DeRozan, who could be on the cusp of stardom entering his fourth season. In other ways, it is newcomer Kyle Lowry, coming off the heels of his best season as a professional. The most important piece to the puzzle, however, will once again be the Raptors former number one overall Andrea Bargnani.

Bargnani has avoided the bust tag by averaging over 15 ppg each of the last four seasons while adding plus shooting numbers for his career (career splits of .440/.365/.824). But honestly, a seven-footer with his talents should be putting up those numbers anyway and should be doing much more. Granted, Bargnani has not always had much to work with in Toronto, but any seven-footer who averages more three-pointers per game than foul shots makes a lot of their own problems.

If he can get to the line more, add to his woeful rebounding totals and avoid the injury bug (he missed 51 out of 148 games the last two season), Bargnani might make his first push for an all-star spot and help the Raptors take the next step from unwatchable to tolerable.

Starting lineup:

Adding Lowry at point guard will change the culture in Toronto, as he will provide instant offense and an influx of hustle to the roster. Lowry figures to get a lot of minutes at both guard spots and if he can learn how to play with former starter Jose Calderon, the Raptors will certainly have among the most formidable backcourts in the league.

In fact, the Raptors have depth at the guard positions to boot. Number eight overall selection Terrence Ross could be a sleeper ROY candidate, as he figures to get starters minutes at shooting guard. Ross has superb length and should develop into a quality defender (1.3 steals per game, 5.1 defensive rebounds as a sophomore at Washington University). Throw in the addition of Landry Fields off the bench, and the Raptors will be competitive on both sides of the ball from the guard positions.

At forward, DeRozan and Bargnani will once again be expected to carry the team’s scoring. Both players struggled with shot selection and saw their field goal percentages drop significantly for the second consecutive season, a trend that will have to change in ’12-’13.

The Raptors also add 2011 lottery pick Jonas Valanciunas to the roster, who played overseas last season. Valanciunas will get the bulk of the minutes at center and while his talents are limitless, it is unclear how effective he will be against NBA competition in year one.

For the Raptors to take the next step with the Lowry/Calderon pairing at point guard, the scorers will have to be more efficient. If they can get 40 ppg from Bargnani/DeRozan, another 10 ppg from the rookie starters and Lowry can expand on his success as a starter in Houston, the Raptors will have one of the best starting lineups in the eastern conference.

Bench:

The depth at the guard positions speaks for itself, although an injury to either Lowry or Calderon would change that overnight. At the forward positions, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis and Linas Kleiza are all talented reserves with size and rebounding ability. Kleiza should provide about 10 ppg off the bench if he can stay at around 25 minutes per contest.

The bench needs to help the Raptors improve from their embarrassing 90.7 ppg last season. Opponents will put a lot of pressure on the Bargnani/Valanciunas pairing and there might be plenty of times this season that foul trouble forces head coach Dwayne Casey to call on Johnson or Davis to play big minutes down low. In games against elite big men, scoring from inside the arc will be a nightmare without Bargnani on the floor, unless the reserves can fit the bill offensively.

Bottom Line:

The Raptors are the type of franchise that has been down for so long, it is almost impossible to imagine this roster exceeding or even improving gradually. With that said, the young talent they possess is unmistakable. If given time and groomed correctly by the coaching staff, the Raptors should continue to form their identity as a defensive stickler (9th in points against, 7th in opponents field goal percentage a year ago) with developing weapons on the offensive end. The Raptors could make a jump up in ’12-’13, maybe finishing around 35 wins.

Preseason expectations, grade:

Improvements on both sides of the ball will better the Toronto franchise, but will not get them out of the division’s basement.

C

4. Brooklyn Nets (’11-’12 record: 22-44)

Best Player: 

Deron Williams was recently named the tenth best player in the league, according to ESPN’s ranking system. While his talent is undeniable and at times staggering, Williams has plenty of criticism to fight off entering his eighth season.

Williams shot just .407 from the field last season, attempting to carry one of the league’s most limited offenses by chucking up a career-high 17.5 shots per game. He also turned the ball over four times per game, a career-low.

The last two-and-a-half years have not been ideal for Williams, considering that he holds most of the public’s blame for Jerry Sloan’s sudden retirement in Utah. He has missed 28 games due to injury the last two seasons and he has watched his turnovers rise abruptly while his shooting numbers have dwindled.

Nobody is more pleased to start training camp then Williams, as the last 82-game season that he has played start to finish with the same team was ’09-’10. With a dash of stability, Williams and his top ten talent should return to form this season.

Starting lineup: 

There was much ballyhoo over the Nets transactions this summer, pairing Williams and Brook Lopez with perineal all-star Joe Johnson while bringing back Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries. This startling lineup is eye-popping: the backcourt has nine all-star game appearances, the forwards are two of the most notable hustle players and rebounders in the league and the center is capable of averaging 20 ppg.

The lineup is not without its question marks though, and some major ones at that. Can Williams handle playing next to a guard like Johnson who demands the basketball as much as he does? Williams has never had a backcourt mate with the ability of Johnson, and quite frankly, it is unclear if their styles match up at all. Johnson needs the ball to operate; Williams dominates the basketball as much as any player in the league.

Will Humphries and Wallace make up for Lopez’s shortcomings rebounding the basketball and defensively? This is a team that had a negative 6.0 scoring differential last season, allowing 99 points per game. With Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Amare’ Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani all in division, is their anyone in this startling lineup who can check a domineering big man?

The Nets will score a lot of points next season, assuming they figure out a balance between their two-headed monster backcourt and Lopez, who all demand over 13 shots per game for their career, but they do not appear to be much of a defensive team at all.

Bench: 

The Nets have a surprisingly improved bench from a year ago, which is a credit to the front office for filling out the roster after the Joe Johnson trade emptied most of the team’s bench.

They added the Bulls backup point guard from a year ago, C.J. Watson, who will bring a defensive presence and a quality experience level to the bench. Former first round pick MarShon Brooks will play a sixth man role, backing up Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace and figuring to earn close to starters minutes. Veterans Josh Childress, Keith Bogans and Jerry Stackhouse will all compete for minutes on the wing, while rookie Tyshawn Taylor will try and earn some minutes at guard.

Possibly the most important addition of the Nets organization – yes, maybe more so then Joe Johnson – is forward Reggie Evans. His defense and rebounding instincts were on full display during the post-season, as he muscled the Clippers into the second round with outstanding hustle plays and long stretches off the bench in place of DeAndre Jordan. Evans will see a lot of time in games against elite post players, such as Philadelphia and Boston.

After Evans, however, there is not much much to speak of down low. Andray Blatche is the lone notable name that figures to see the floor and his production has historically been limited due to his lack of maturity on and off the floor.

Bottom Line: 

It is unclear what this team will look like defensively, but Humphries and Wallace will rebound the ball, Lopez and Johnson will score, and if done correctly, Williams should return back to his 18 ppg, 11apg, 4 rpg form. But that is if the team can come together. It is highly debatable if this roster will ever be able to balance shots and if/when chemistry between Johnson and Williams will smooth out. This will not be an overnight success, even with quality bench pieces picked up during the busy off season.

Preseason expectations, grade: 

They will improve all season, but competing for anything other than a low playoff seed seems very unlikely in year one

B-