2. Memphis Grizzles (’11-’12 record: 41-25)
Best Player:
The Grizzles have elected to build their team around four players who play well together but not great, as they often times get in each other’s way during the game’s biggest moments. It is unclear who the best player in the quartet is, but one thing that is for sure is that the team needs at least one of them to play a little louder.
Between Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, the team could probably thrive with as many as three of them. It just never seems like there is enough shots or time in a game for all four players to maximize their potential, and better teams have thrived off that, particularly in the playoffs.
Starting Lineup:
Gay seems to be right on the precipice of full-scale stardom on an annual basis. He averaged 20.1 points per game as a second-year player. Over his next four seasons, he has never averaged less than 18.9 points per game or less than 5.6 rebounds per game. He has career shooting splits of .456/.347/.771, which are fantastic.
But Gay is too reserved. He has never averaged more than 16.7 shots per game, and his 16.4 attempts last season were only the 16th most in the league. Gay had just four attempts at the foul line per game last season, only the 46th highest in the league. He was attempting less foul shots per game than Tyler Hansbrough and Carl Landry last season. That is embarrassing.
If Gay wants to be the leading scorer of the Grizzles and help make them a legitimate title contender, which they can be, he needs to take more shots and create more scoring opportunities for himself. He is too gifted athletically to not consistently score 25 points per game.
What makes matters worse for Gay is that the team’s nucleus experienced their peak of success without him during the ’10-’11 post-season. The team knocked off the number one overall Spurs in the first round and gave the Oklahoma City Thunder a run for their money through seven games of the second round, all with Gay watching from the sidelines.
Randolph and Gasol carried the Grizzles that post-season. Randolph averaged 22.2 ppg and 10.8 rpg, earning praise from most NBA critics and being mentioned in the same breath as other top tier forwards in the league. Gasol burst onto the scene as well, averaging 15.0 ppg, 11.2 rpg and 2.2 bpg. Conley also raised his level of play up substantially, averaging 15.2 ppg, 6.4 apg and 3.8 rpg, a full stat line for a then 23-year-old point guard.
Quite frankly, the team played its best basketball without Gay, because Randolph was an unbelievable number one option for the team. Gasol, Conley and the rest of the team played well in complementary roles and the team almost made it to the Western Conference finals.
When Gay returned from injury last season, people around the league feared what the Grizzles might be capable of with their full roster. With Randolph dealing with injuries most of the season and without a full training camp to reacquaint the roster with one another, however, the Grizzles did not play all that well last season. An inconsistent regular season led to a four seed, where they had a tough draw against the Los Angeles Clippers and would lose in the first round.
The team struggled in the fourth quarter against the Clippers, and while blame must fall on head coach Lionel Hollins, it was evident the team seldom knew which player should have the ball in their hands late in the game. The head coach can steady nerves and call the perfect plays, but you cannot coach away a problem like who should have the ball in their hands. Nobody on that team knew what player or play call gave them the best chance of winning, and that is because there was not a player who defiantly called for the ball.
It could have been Gay or Randolph one-on-one or Conley running the pick-and-roll with Gasol or a post-iso for Randolph or overloading one side to create space for Gasol on the weak side or anything else. Instead of working all regular season to get comfortable with a go-to, fourth quarter strategy, the Grizzles were just guessing against in the Clippers series, and often looked foolish.
The starting lineup has to play better in ’12-’13. They simply have to much talent not to be a top 5 starting lineup in the league.
Bench:
What makes matters worse for the Grizzles is a questionable bench and the task of replacing sixth man O.J. Mayo. The Grizzle are very thin at the guard positions. Mayo is no longer playing behind starters Mike Conley and Tony Allen, and so the team will turn to a pair of talented but very irregular young guards to play significant minutes.
Jerryd Bayless was a lottery pick in 2008, but injuries (he has missed 83 of a possible 312 games) and low minutes (18.2 minutes per game for his career) have slowed down his progress. Bayless does possess a plus-NBA shooting touch, with career shooting splits of .424/.423/.852. His career averages per 36 minutes (16.1 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.5 rpg, 2.9 tpg) are quite favorable. Bayless will be asked to log minutes at both point guard and shooting guard, as the team hopes he can play a similar role for the team as Mayo did.
Also on the team is newcomer Wayne Ellington, a former first round pick who has seen injuries and inconsistent minutes stall his career as well. Ellington has a great three-point shot (.376 career average) and has averaged 6.5 ppg in just 18.7 minutes for his career. Ellington figures to pick up minutes on the wing as instant offense coming from the bench.
The Grizzles bring back Marreese Speights, Darrell Arthur and Quincy Pondexter at the forward positions, as well as Hamed Haddadi at center. This group of bigs is not particularly gifted offensively, but provide length and athleticism down low.
Generally speaking, the Grizzles bench is fine, but currently very young and unproven. If the team suffers a major injury to the starting lineup, it might be too much for the bench to support. Hollins would probably have to change the entire offense and defense if a star player went down, particularly down low with Randolph or Gasol.
Bottom Line:
This team needs to answer some major questions. Can they score more than 95 points per game? Can they stay healthy? Do they have enough offense off the bench without Mayo? Who is going to have the ball late in games? Can Gay and Randolph play together?
Without answering these questions, the Grizzles will have a very similar season to last and leave many of their fans scratching their heads as to how this much talent could falter. If the team can make the necessary adjustments, this team might make a run similar to ’10-’11. Honestly, if the Grizzles can answer the big questions hanging over their heads, they might be the best team in the Western Conference.
Pre-season expectations and grade:
B+
The team will improve all season long, earn a number four seed and return to the second round, only to be defeated by the Spurs in the #1 vs. #4 match up.
1. San Antonio (’11-’12 record: 50-16)
Best Player:
After outplaying arguably every point guard not named Chris Paul last season and leading the second highest scoring offense in the league, Tony Parker has solidified that he is the premiere player on the Spurs. With young players like Kawhi Leonard and Daniel Green far from their athletic peaks and with Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili very much on the downside of their terrific careers, Parker is the lone Spur who is both in their prime and improving.
Parker posted a career-high 7.7 assists per game last season to go along with his lowest turnover margin in four years. He was the only point guard in the league to average 18.3 points per game and shoot at 48 percent. Parker also improved at getting to the charity stripe, making 3.8 foul shots per game while shooting just under 80 percent, one of five points guards to accomplish both feats last season.
For a Western Conference finals team that did not make many changes to its roster, Parker is as likely a reason for the Spurs to return to the NBA’s final four as any.
Starting Lineup:
The Spurs boast the same base starting lineup in ’12-’13 that rattled off a 24-3 record to close out last year’s regular season, swept the Jazz and the Clippers in the post-season and came within five points of taking a 3-2 series lead over the Thunder in the Western Conference finals. Boris Diaw, Duncan, Leonard, Ginobili and Parker will once again be among the league’s best starting lineups because of their chemistry on the floor.
Bench:
Continuing the trend for the Spurs, the team returns their seven largest contributors off the bench from the playoffs. Mills and Neal return at guard; Daniel Green and Stephen Jackson return on the wing; Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner return down low.
In fact, the only player who received significant minutes for the Spurs in the playoffs who is not returning is former first round pick James Anderson, who recently signed with the Atlanta Hawks to battle for playing time at small forward against Kyle Korver and DeShawn Stevenson. If Anderson win the small forward job in Atlanta, which he should, it would prove that the Spurs rotation is so well put together, they did not have room on their 12-man roster for a player good enough to start for a consistent playoff contender.
The Spurs will once again be among the league leaders in shooting (first in three-point percentage, first in field goal percentage) and rebounding (ninth in total rebounding, sixth in rebounding differential) because of their deep, 12-man roster.
Bottom Line:
The Spurs are going to win 50-plus games once again because of their offensive superiority, chemistry, wicked home-court advantage, veteran leadership and coaching and depth. What they do in the playoffs will absolutely depend, however, on who they have to play and in what round.
The Thunder raised their play to a level that the Spurs simply could not catch up to in games 3-6 of the Western Conference finals, and assuming that the Thunder will only get better with an additional year of experience, it will be very difficult for the Spurs to get past them.
The Spurs will have its struggles against a bigger Lakers team, as the combination of Howard/Gasol will certainly put a lot of pressure on an aging Duncan. For the Spurs to beat the Lakers in a seven game series, they would need to have home court advantage, and even still, who guards Kobe and Gasol?
If the Spurs can earn the number one overall seed out west, forcing the Thunder and Lakers to match up in the second round, then the Spurs will make a return to the conference finals, where anything can happen. If the Spurs land the second or third seed and draw a second round series against the Lakers, that will be very challenging for the Spurs, particularly the games in the Staples Center.
Pre-season expectations and grade:
A-
Offensive prowess and regular season efficiency will be enough to get them back to the conference finals, just not to the NBA finals.
Next week: Atlantic
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