Six Divisions in Six Weeks: Southeast Division

By: Joe Manganiello

1. Miami Heat (’11-’12 record: 46-20)

Best player:

LeBron James is the best player in the world. His performance on a national stage during the playoffs and on the international stage during the Olympics speak for themselves. As long as James is on the floor, the Heat have a player who controls every aspect of the game. It might not be possible to stop James from furthering his legacy in ’12-’13 if he continues on the tear he has been on over the last year.

Starting Lineup:

But of course, what separates Miami from just about every other team is their full starting lineup.  Combining James with Wade and Bosh has changed the league; seldom has a roster carried a trio with as much athleticism, length and determination. Honestly, mentioning Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers as members of the starting lineup is not important, because Miami’s 4-12 pieces are very much rotational and malleable. It is the constant presence of James, Wade and Bosh that set the Heat apart and make them the team to beat in the NBA.

Bench:

This is where team president Pat Riley really thrived last season, as he surrounded his star players with valuable bench pieces who were more than willing to do the team’s dirty work. Battier and Chalmers are perfect for the Heat, as they both can hit wide-open jump shots, play defense and get out of the way once it is time for James or Wade to take over.

Chalmers knows his job is to forfeit the floor general duties to James whenever the three-time MVP says so; instead of fighting that, Chalmers hands the ball over and gets ready to catch-and-shoot off the ball.

Battier was as essential to the NBA title as anybody on the Heat last season, considering that he was the most notable addition to last season’s team following the loss in the 2011 finals, and that Battier shot out of his mind in the 2012 finals. Not to mention that Battier’s defense and length really helps the Heat against bigger teams, as it frees up Bosh to take on easier assignments and save energy for offense.

The Heat added a future hall-of-famer to their bench for this season, one that has many Celtic’s fans (and players) livid. The effect of Ray Allen on the Heat is immeasurable, considering that it is a huge blow emotionally to the team’s biggest competition, and it gives a Miami team that hit 42 three-pointers in five NBA finals games the league’s greatest shooter. Anytime Allen/Wade/James are on the floor together, the defense will be asking themselves how they can possibly double team James, check Wade and cover Allen all at the same time.

The answer is that it probably cannot be done, which is scary to think about.

Along with Battier, Chalmers and Allen, who will play fringe starters minutes, Miami has plenty of experienced options. Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony will provide minutes in the front court for another season. Norris Cole will see minutes behind Chalmers. James Jones and Mike Miller both return, although playing time will be scarce on the wing with the addition of Allen. Head coach Erik Spoelstra will have a fine rotation of players, most of whom have a magnitude of playoff experience the last two seasons.

Bottom Line:

The league’s most dangerous team with the league’s best player, the Miami Heat are the team to beat in ’12-’13. It will take a very, very strong team to knock them off their pedestal.

Pre-season grade, expectation:

A

NBA Finals… appearance.

 

2. Atlanta Hawks (’11-’12 record: 40-26)

Best player:

After deciding to cut ties with Joe Johnson following years of disappointing playoff finishes, the franchise’s fate is in the hands of all-star big man, Al Horford. Horford missed most of last season with injuries, but his talent (career stat line: 12.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg and .537 shooting) and clutch gene (19 pt, 11 reb, 3 as, 3 bk, 3 st in game four against Boston: an elimination game) are very appealing. With four years left on his deal, Horford seems to be who the Hawks wish to build around and for good reason.

Starting Lineup:

Following the trade that sent Johnson to the Nets and a subsequent deal that sent Marvin Williams to the Jazz, the Hawks starting lineup that the league has grown used to seeing over the last four or five seasons was demolished with a figurative hammer. Josh Smith and Horford are the only returning starters from a year ago.

There figure to be position battles at both point guard (Jeff Teague, Devin Harris) and shooting guard (Anthony Morrow, Lou Williams). Teague is a fan favorite and a player who has been progressing rather quickly, so starting him should be a priority, particularly over the steadily declining Harris. Morrow is among the league’s best shooters and Williams proved in Philadelphia that his offensive production is not affected by coming off the bench, so starting Morrow figures to be a good option.

Suddenly without Johnson and Williams, the Hawks are terribly thin at the forward position, with no clear starter at small forward. Kyle Korver is a bad starting option, and with Morrow already on roster, the role of sharp shooter is taken. With DeShawn Stevenson, who is a very average player at this stage of his career, as the only other option, Korver will probably see most of the small forward minutes.

Bench:

The team has four component guards: two starters, two off the bench. At forward and center is where the team looks really weak. Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson will be receiving significant bench minutes down low, which is not favorable for the Hawks. Any game that Horford misses or gets into foul trouble during will be a heavy burden for the Hawks, as they, quite frankly, will not be very talented when Horford is off the floor. Pair up the thin front court with arguably the league’s worst small forward position, and the Hawks appear likely to get bullied around by bigger, deeper teams all season.

Bottom Line:

When a team trades away players like Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams in the off-season, it shows that the franchise is ready to rebuild, or at least reload. For the Hawks, despite young talents like Horford, Teague and even Lou Williams, a short bench and the inevitable Josh Smith trade rumors will make it difficult for the Hawks to continue their playoff streak – so they will not.

Pre-season grade, expectation:

C

They might get close, but they will miss the playoffs because they will not be very good.

 

3. Washington Wizards (’11-’12 record: 20-46)

Best player:

John Wall in the pivotal third year will be amongst the team’s biggest story lines all season, as his play will likely determine if the team will improve in ’12-’13. Wall saw just about all of his numbers stay virtually the same between his rookie season and last season: scoring (16.4 to 16.3), passing (8.3 to 8.0), rebounding (4.6 to 4.5), minutes (37.8 to 36.2), steals (1.8 to 1.4), turnovers (3.8 to 3.9), foul-shot percentage (.766 to .789) and field-goal percentage (.409 to .423).

There are two stat categories that did, however, change drastically for Wall and will have an enormous effect on the team’s performance this season.

Wall’s three-point percentage dropped from .296 to .071, when he made just three of 42 three-point attempts. That was the worst mark of any player to make a three-point basket all season, ranking 340th in the league in three-point percentage.

As a player of high stature at the guard position, this is staggering. If Wall shoots even 25 percent from three-point land, it eliminates the defender’s option to back off the arc (a la what teams used to do against Rondo). The Wizards need their best player to be at least competitive from the three-point line.

The Wizards will also need Wall’s durability to remain perfect like it was last season. Wall started every game of the season last year, including the final six games of the season, all victories, when Wall posted an impressive stat line of 14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 11.2 apg and 2.3 spg. Wall missed 13 games his rookie season.

Starting Lineup:

The rest of the Wizards starting lineup will be entering their first full seasons with the team. Center Emeka Okafor and small forward Trevor Ariza join the team from New Orleans and figure to add defensive instinct and experience to what has been among the league’s youngest rosters the last two seasons. Okafor was plagued by injuries last season for the first time in years, as he had strung together four consecutive 10+ ppg and 9+ rpg seasons with at least 72 games played for the Charlotte Bobcats and the Hornets. Ariza adds a desirable perimeter defender and shooter, and someone with playoff pedigree.

Nene, who took over at center after being traded for Javale McGee, will slide over to play power forward with the presence of Okafor. Nene’s role will almost certainly be to focus on scoring, as he and Wall are the only two players on the team who can score points consistently.

Rounding out the starting lineup is rookie Bradley Beal, who figures to be as solid as any of the lottery picks from this year’s rookie class. Beal will instantly become a go-to jump shooter for a team that shot .320 from behind the arc, the third-worst rate in the league.

The Wizard’s are not going to magically turn into an offensive powerhouse, but if Wall improves in year three and the starting lineup meshes, the Wizards will be much improved.

Bench:

Like many teams, the bench is where the Wizards will begin to falter, as they are simply not very deep. Forward Trevor Booker and guard Jordan Crawford figure to get a lot of playing time, but there is not much else after them.

Second-year player and former lottery pick Jan Vesely will probably get a chance to earn more playing time, but adding Ariza and Beal to the starting lineup figures to stunt his growth. Not to mention, Vesely only averaged 4.7 ppg last season, albeit in limited action and in a strike shortened season.

The Wizards are a very small team after Okafor and Nene, and foul trouble will probably be unavoidable against good rebounding teams.

Bottom Line:

Washington’s franchise has not had a whole heck of a lot to look forward to as of late. They have not made the playoffs since ’07-’08, and no players from that season remain on roster in ’12-’13. They have lost at least 68 percent of their games every season since. They were in the bottom ten last season in both offensive scoring (93.6 ppg) and defensive scoring (98.4 ppg), with the fifth worst point differential in the league (-4.8 ppg).

But with one of the league’s most talented young players, a legitimate ROY candidate and a starting frontline which includes 18 years of experience, the Wizards have their most talented starting lineup in years. With the rapid decline of the Orlando Magic and the current state of the Bobcats, the Wizards have a chance to finish above fourth place for the first time in five years.

Pre-season grade, expectation:

C

They will miss playoffs, but improve gradually all season; they might even make a late push for a low seed.

 

4. Charlotte Bobcats (’11-’12 record: 7-59)

Best player:

Although Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the most talented player on roster, the team will go through Kemba Walker because of his special ability to create and produce. Walker only averaged 12.1 ppg and 4.4 apg in his rookie year, but consider how difficult it was for him to get going offensively when the defense had no incentive to respect any other piece of the Bobcat offensive. Walker will get more quality looks as both the starting point guard and a benefactor of having MKG on board.

Starting Lineup:

Rumors are leaking out that the Bobcats will start Walker at point guard, which would place free agent signee Ramon Sessions to the bench, despite being the starting point guard of the Los Angeles Lakers for most of last season. It goes without saying that both players will play large minutes.

At shooting guard, a position battle between last season’s leading scorer Gerald Henderson and off-season acquisition Ben Gordon should prove to be highly competitive. The edge will go to Henderson, who played well as a starting shooting guard last season. It also helps that Gordon has had plenty of success in his career as a bench player, winning a sixth man of the year award and averaging 18.0 ppg in four seasons as a bench player in Chicago.

The other three starting positions are all but sealed, as small forward MKG will start every game this season, power forward Biyombo will look to build off the defensive successes of his rookie season and new comer Brendan Haywood has a great opportunity to play starters minutes for the first time since ’09-’10 in Washington, when he averaged 9.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg and 2.1 bpg.

Bench:

Although the starting lineup has improved ten fold from last season, the Bobcats bench is still nothing special, and does appear to be lacking down low. A collection of Tyrus Thomas, Bryon Mullens and DeSagana Diop will compete for bench minutes at forward/center, but are absolutely a below-average crop of bench options. Haywood is going to have to avoid injury/foul trouble all season long if the Bobcats wish to play competitively against the conference’s better teams. Even with a solid five man rotation at the guard/wing spots, the Bobcats might have the thinest front court in basketball, and that will really hurt them.

Sidebar: Imagine the performance Andrew Bynum will have against the Bobcats the first time they travel to Philadelphia. Bynum might score 50 points; every player taller than 6-foot seven-inches might foul out; the 76ers might win by 40 points.  

Bottom Line:

The Bobcats will be twice the team they were last season, maybe even triple the team. Keep in mind, however, that triple the winning percentage of last year’s Bobcats would still only be .318, which would net a 26-56 record this season.

This begs a lot of questions. How did the Bobcats only win seven games last season? Would a 26 win season in ’12-’13 be a cause of celebration for the Bobcats organization? With the talent in the starting lineup, could the Bobcats win more than 26 games? With that bench, can they even win 26 games?

For now, it is much safer keeping expectations low around the Bobcats. Yes, MKG and Kemba make this team exciting. Yes, Haywood/Biyombo make a mean pair of starting big man. Yes, we all remember what Ben Gordon used to be in Chicago and wonder if he could be that player once  again in Charlotte. Yes, Sessions and Walker make up one of the better point guard duos in the Eastern Conference.

This is all understood. But the Bobcats are too poor defensively, thin down low and inexperienced at guard to win anymore than 25 games this season. At most.

Pre-season grade, expectation: 

D+

Their ridiculously bad season last year will hang over this season as well, and they will be a lottery team once again.

 

5. Orlando Magic (’11-’12 record: 37-29)

Best player:

After trading away their franchise player in what is undoubtedly one of the most hair-pulling, head-scratching trades of all-time, the Magic do not have a best player. This is why they will struggle unforgivably in ’12-’13.

Starting Lineup:

A blend of long-time Magic players and new additions will make up this season’s team, but without Dwight on board, even the returning players will feel new; it will be a brand new team.

Jameer Nelson will start at point guard and will play a big role in the future of this franchise. Not necessarily because he has the type of talent that can lead the Magic in a new direction, rather because Orlando management inexplicably gave Nelson 8.6 million dollars a year over the next three seasons. In a point guard driven league, and with so many young point guard coming into the league, effectively locking Nelson in as the fixture at point guard for three years seems foolish.

Veteran forwards Hedo Turkoglu and Glen “Big Baby” Davis will start at both forward spots. Newcomer Aaron Afflalo will start at shooting guard and either Nikola Vucevic or Gustavo Avon will start at center, replacing Howard. These four starters will all be asked to play larger roles than ever before in their careers, which should not have Magic fans feeling very confident.

Turk and Davis will have to be the best players on the team, but it is questionable how many points can be expected from that pair night in and night out. Afflalo will be asked to shut down the opposing team’s best player every night, while punching in over a dozen points of his own. Vucevic and Avon will both have to increase their minutes from last season sizably.

Amongst all of this change and uncertainty, a point guard with career averages of just 12.4 ppg and 5.0 apg will be asked to connect all the dots and keep the Magic in the playoff hunt.

Bench:

A pair of savvy veterans, Al Harrington and JJ Redick, remain on roster and will probably claim a lot of playing time. Harrington could very well lead the team in scoring off the bench, as he managed over 14 ppg with the Nuggets last season and could probably match that once again in a super bench role in Orlando. Redick will probably see the exact same minutes as last season, relieving Afflalo and Turk on the wing and trying to spread the defense out with the three-point shot.

Ishmael Smith, Moe Harkless, Nikola Vucevic, Gustavo Ayon and Christian Eyenga all figure to play significant rotational minutes for the Magic this season. They combine for just six years of NBA experience heading into training camp.

Bottom Line:

It is impossible for the Magic to avoid the fact that they are the league’s most bland roster, with no clear star power or explosive offensive ability. Between dealing with the learning curves of young basketball players, the short comings of lacking star talent and the shell shock of playing without Dwight Howard for the first time in eight seasons, the Magic will not be a very good team this season. This is what management intended for when they dealt Dwight to the Lakers: to start from scratch.

Pre-season grade, expectation:

D-

The young Magic will struggle to win 20 games, and it is more likely they will finish at 15 wins.

 

Coming next week: Southwest