By Joe Manganiello
After roughly nine months of speculation, rumors and watching ESPN talking heads play with their cell phones on live television, Dwight Howard is actually getting traded.
No, really, this time it is legitimate.
He is not joining the Brooklyn Nets as most people expected, or even signing an extension with his new team. Howard is heading to the Lakers and will play out the final year of his contract for what has suddenly become the NBA’s most talented team.
After letting the NBA’s largest transaction since “The Decision” digest for a couple of days, I give you the winners and losers of a deal that involved multiple all-stars, thirteen total players and five draft picks.
WINNERS: Los Angeles Lakers (A)
What have the Lakers become this off-season? They have suddenly transformed themselves from an aged, deflating team with a pair of second-round exits the last two post-seasons into a juggernaut, all-star driven franchise with short-term and long-term contender status.
Oh, what money (and location) can buy.
The Lakers, who entered this off-season without much cap flexibility, found a way to bring in (steal) two-time MVP Steve Nash by agreeing to a sign-and-trade with the (defeated) Phoenix Suns. Nash is unquestionably the best point guard Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol has ever played with. Even at the age of 38, Nash was the only player in the league last season that shot at least .532 from the field while dishing out 10 assists.
So now replace the oft-injured, oft-disgruntled, oft-disinterested Bynum with Howard, who has never missed more than 12 games in a season and is the most dominant defensive player in the league. Howard has six consecutive seasons with 13 rpg – the first since Dennis Rodman in the 1990s – while his shot blocking abilities have helped him earn three defensive player of the year awards.
The Lakers have the league’s most experienced backcourt (Nash and Bryant, who combine for 20 all-NBA teams), arguably the league’s most tenacious perimeter defender (the artist formally known as Ron Artest) and a forward that still garnishes some of the highest praises in the league (Pau Gasol).
Even though the expectations for this team will be enormous, they have all the skills in the world to culminate their first season together with a title and maybe more to follow, which should scare everybody in the league. The Lakers, who were supposed to be fading away much like the Dallas Mavericks, have very loudly reloaded their roster.
This move even makes sense long-term for the Lakers, as Howard will become the natural successor as franchise player once Bryant retires. If Howard inks a five-year deal with the Lakers following the ’12-’13 season, Bryant and Nash would probably only see two or three seasons of that contract. Even if Gasol was a Laker for the duration of that contract (he would be 37-years-old in ’16-’17), the team would belong to Howard. By the age of 29, Howard should be the best player in Los Angeles and with a completely different psyche then when he was the franchise player in Orlando. A cop out or not, Howard was going to have to leave Orlando if he wanted a chance to compete for a title (their history with hall-of-fame bound big man speaks for itself) and the Lakers provide the perfect location for the second half of his career.
WINNERS: Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers (B+)
The Nuggets, who almost beat the Lakers in the first round this past season, are an electrifying regular season team with a high octane offense (104 ppg). Their need for defensive help and late-game scoring ability is evident, however, as the team often times was settled for targeting backup point guard Andre Miller (9.7 ppg with .438/.217/.811 shooting splits) to score in late-game situations. The team lost a lot of close games because opponents would pressure Ty Lawson and force someone else to have to beat them, which scarcely worked in Denver’s favor.
The 76ers, on the other hand, will be remembered in the ’11-’12 season for collapsing the last two months (15-22 over the final 37 regular season games), stumbling into the playoffs (fell from a likely #3 seed in January to the #8 seed) and then improbably stealing a first-round series because of Derrick Rose’s knee injury. The culprit of the 76ers struggles: they were a very average offensive team (93.6 ppg) and lacked a go-to presence offensively.
As a result of playing along in the Dwight Howard saga, both teams suddenly have been handed the answer to their problems.
The Nuggets have added Andre Iguodala, who for eight years has been among the most respected offensive and defensive players at his position. After completing a “job well done” summer with Team USA (see my take on the 2012 Olympic team later this week), as well as feeding off the move to Denver, Iguodala should have a renewed energy this fall playing in a new conference for a young, up-and-coming team.
Iguodala appeared to be in need of a change in scenery, as his production was dropping off simultaneous to the rise in production from his inevitable replacement on the wing, Evan Turner. Iggy has seen his ppg average fall every season since ’07-’08 (19.9 down to 12.3) while Turner saw every major statistical category improve in his second season (one of nine players in the league with averages of 9.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg and 2.8 apg – Turner did so in only 26 minutes per game).
Iguodala figures to be a much needed upgrade over the younger but ordinary Aaron Afflalo, as the Nuggets can actually run late-game offenses through the veteran and probably rely on 17 or 18 points per night. Both players provide a lot defensively, but Iggy’s presence as an Olympian and all-NBA defender will be crucial in a western conference that includes wing players like Kobe, Durant and Ginobili (just among the elite teams).
Iggy makes the Nuggets a better overall team, and certainly gives the team’s best player, Ty Lawson, more to work with. The Nuggets will be battling the Grizzles and Clippers all season for the #4 seed and home-court in the first round and Iguodala is the type of player who might put them over the edge. I like the Nuggets to finish with the #4 or #5 seed and win a playoff series out West, which is easier said then done, and which would not be possible without Iggy on board.
The 76ers, who lose Iguodala, make up for it by adding the second most dominant center in basketball, Andrew Bynum. Suddenly, Philadelphia has among the largest front courts in the league, as Bynum, Spencer Hawes and Kwame Brown provide excellent size and skill. Hawes was one of just sixteen players to average 9.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 1.3 bpg in ’11-’12. Hawes is expected to play out of position at power forward next season, but I wonder if the move will look anything like a poor man’s version of San Antonio’s front court during the late-1990’s and early 2000s, where David Robinson was the listed center and Tim Duncan was slotted as a seven-foot power forward. The Spurs were so much bigger than their opponents, it did not matter if they lacked quickness from the power forward position. Rebounding, size and defense wins championships; athleticism from the forward spots is over-rated (something that has plagued my Knicks for decades).
Combining Hawes and Bynum (both 24-years-old) with a quality, under-rated back up like Kwame Brown makes the 76ers the biggest team in the Eastern conference. Bynum will suddenly be the number one option for his team, and I’d look for him to increase his numbers in areas like field goal attempts (7.6 in ’10-’11, 13.3 in ’11-’12) and foul shot attempts (3.9 in ’10-’11, 5.6 in ’11-’12). If Bynum is getting 25-30 touches per game and attempting somewhere around 18-19 shots per game with 7-8 foul shots per game, I think Bynum might be able to post an impressive stat line reminiscent of Duncan’s breakout ’01-’02 season (25.5 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 2.5 bpg, 18.3 field goal attempts, 8.5 foul shot attempts). He is going to be the best big man in the East, and for every night he has a tough match up against a “Tyson Chandler”, he will have the pleasure of tipping off against a “Bismack Biyombo” or a “Jonas Valanciunas.” Bynum will post well over 50 double-doubles in a full season and walk to his second career all-star game.
The 76ers will ride this breakout season from Bynum into a top four seed in the East. Assuming Miami is the run away one seed, how many other teams are going to win more than 50 games in the East? The two New York teams are not guaranteed to be anything special in ’12-’13, as they have adjustments to make at key positions. Boston has under achieved in the regular season as well as battled injuries the last few years. The Bulls will not be in the mix for a top seed because Rose is out until February (at the earliest). The Pacers are very talented, but it is unknown whether they are a good team or a very good team, and they do not have a player on their roster as talented as Bynum (although the potential rivalry between Bynum and Hibbert is enticing). I think that Bynum and Turner will lead the 76ers into the playoffs with a #2 or #3 seed and win a playoff series or two. This will lead to Bynum resigning in Philly long-term, marking the trade as a great one for 76ers management.
LOSERS: Orlando Magic (D+)
After months of fielding offers (some better then others) for their former franchise player, the Magic decided to pull the trigger on this deal, leading to the question, why?
The Magic receive Afflalo, Al Harrington, Nikola Vucevic and Moe Harkless, plus the contracts of Josh McRoberts and Christian Eyenga, and three unprotected first-round picks from obvious playoff teams…. Wait, that’s it? Really?
Was this a better offer then when the Nets were willing to take on several bloated contracts plus hand over Brook Lopez and MarShawn Brooks? Or when the Lakers were discussing swapping Bynum or Gasol for Howard? Or when the Houston Rockets were willing to part ways with nearly a dozen young players, draft picks and cash considerations for Howard?
The Magic strangely accepted this deal when there was no ticking clock and seemingly no more urgency to get rid of him then there was at the trade deadline last season or even a month ago during the heat of summer free agency. They receive two players in Afflalo and Harrington who can start right away but are average players at their positions, and who are overpaid at over 14 million dollars combined in ’12-’13. Harkless was just a first round draftee by the 76ers, and obviously could use his six-foot eight-inch frame to become an NBA starter eventually, but at nineteen years old, he will not make an impact at the next level for a year or two, and probably just plain came out of college too early.
The draft picks the Magic got ultimately are terrible, and with the contracts of Afflalo (4 years, 31 million left) and Harrington (3 years, 21.3 million left), the Magic do not have as much cap space as their press releases might imply they have. Let’s not forget that Orlando also refused to retain star forward Ryan Anderson, opting to trade him to New Orleans. Truly, the state of the Magic hangs on the potential of second-year player Nikola Vucevic, who they just acquired from Philadelphia.
Vucevic averaged 5.5 points and 4.8 rebounds in his rookie season, but he did so in only 15.9 minutes per game. He is a true seven-footer who can also hit a mid-range jump shot. In three games against accomplished teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics last season, Vucevic averaged 26 minutes, 14.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg and 1.3 bpg.
So let’s say that the Magic’s grand plan is to waive Harrington and take advantage of the 50% non-guaranteed portions of his contact in year three and four, while also trying to get rid of Hedu Terkoglu and Glen Davis, affectively shedding as much of the roughly 20 million dollars annually the franchise would owe that trio of players if on roster. That would leave a projected, long-term starting lineup of Jameer Nelson (just signed a 3 year, 25.2 million dollar contract – he has averaged 12.5 ppg and 5.6 assists over the last three seasons), Afflalo, Harkless, Gustavo Ayon and Vucevic.
That team would have to lose a lot of games before getting significantly better, if they would ever get significantly better.
Here is the Magic’s problem in a nutshell: they are a team that got strong armed by the strong arms of their long time, aggrieved franchise player, and instead of taking the time to figure out what pieces would actually help their franchise as they headed toward an inevitable blockbuster trade, they impatiently sealed their fate as the new worst team in the league with a move that, quite frankly, did not have to be made.
Yes, Howard was going to have to be traded eventually for fear that he would walk away and the team would get nothing. Well, all right, Orlando management and brass, you did not get “nothing” for Dwight. Congratulations to you. But what did you really get? At best, the Magic received a stud at center (Vucevic), a pair of young, talented wings (Afflalo, Harkless) and enough money to afford the many lottery picks and rising young players that the Magic will hope to garnish during the next 4-5 years. At worst, however, the Magic will be the league’s most embarrassing team with an unbelievably, non-competitive roster filled with failed international players and average American talent.
The league should never forget that Dwight put this unflattering fortune on his former team, so that he could enjoy the sun shine of LA, hence why I added a plus to their “D” grade. With that said, it would not have been this potentially ugly for Orlando if they had just orchestrated the whole situation better over the last nine months.
I am not sold on this as a pencil-them-into-the-finals trade for the Lakers.
Howard is the best available commodity on the market, but how does his value change with the Lakers? He’s a career double-double guy on a team where he was the number one option. His rebounding numbers should stay the same…maybe even increase as Kobe takes 20-plus shots per night. But will he stay motivated as it becomes more and more obvious that the Lakers idea of a post-entry pass will be a missed jumper that Dwight can go fetch and dunk?
Another way of looking at this – Steve Nash is a great play-maker. But as proficient as he is in creating is as deficient as he is playing defense. In a seven-game series he has the potential for allowing Russell Westbrook or Tony Parker to notch hall-of-fame type numbers. So an option can be to let him cover an off-guard like…let’s say Harden. Okay. Nash better work on his post defense, because that’s where Harden will go.
You can argue that Howard can clean up all of Nash’s messes. Which leads to foul trouble and another interesting dynamic. The Lakers can play offense-defense with Howard in late-game situations except do you want his lifetime 59% free throw shooting on the floor in the last minute? We have already seen him fail to seal a victory in a championship game.
That’s all right. Mike Brown is pushing the buttons to make this work, and he has Coach Kobe to help during timeouts.
Casey,
Those are all important things to remember about any team that changes the dynamics of their roster so suddenly – the Lakers will have a learning curve and their fair share of struggles. I think OKC is still the team to beat because of their unity and the natural progression the Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka nucleus as endured together… The talent of the Lakers is impossible to deny, but I do think the regular season will expose weaknesses of LAL that will promptly have to be addressed come playoff time… I do not have a set NBA finals prediction yet. I want to wait it out and maybe even see some pre-season games/final rosters/etc… But the West should once again be the more competitive, impressive conference.
yes nash can not contain westbrook but dwight can do something that bynum could not and that is the help d on the weak side if westbrook blows bye nash
Joe – I’ve read the Lakers section and can’t simply get past thinking about the implications this trade MAY have on the playoff/Finals picture. One thing that stands out: THREE time defensive player of the year. At the center position. Soak that in. I know everyone knows of Howard’s dominance on the defensive end, but this really hasn’t been the focal point of this trade, has it? Many are talking about how this may cause offensive confusion, dissension, whatever have you, among these Lakers. But DEFENSIVELY. My gosh. Take these Olympics where rim protection was a huge issue when Chandler was out. They were susceptible to every roll and cut to the basket and it showed. Put Howard on that team.
It just seems to me that this trade has the potential to blow up everyone’s premature funeral for the Kobe-led Lakers.
I need to think some more on this…
Rey, you’re so correct. I’ll put this thought out there, the ’12-’13 Lakers might flirt with the title of best defensive team of the new century. What other teams would be on that list? The Robinson/Duncan Spurs teams, the ’03-’04 Pistons and maybe the LeBron/Wade Miami Heat… But this Lakers roster suddenly has the league’s best defensive center (by a mile) and three incredible defensive wings (Kobe, Artest and Barnes). Nash and Gasol are not bad defenders, and even if they are “average” the only offense in the NBA that might have a favorable match-up against them is the Thunder, because they are the most diverse offensive team in decades. The Thunder would absolutely target Nash, while freeing up three-pointers for Durant/Harden. The Thunder would have to shoot well though, or else they would get killed on the glass and the games over. I do not even think Miami’s offense would have a real advantage other than the world’s best player – but I’ll take a rotation of Artest/Barnes/Kobe on LeBron/Wade and then see what the Heat do once Howard (and Gasol) takes the paint away.
This Lakers defense could be legendary.
Is Dwight Howard a “mile” better than Tyson Chandler on the defensive end?
Nash is at best an average defensive point guard. The only reason I don’t jump to the conclusion of calling him the worst defensive point guard in the Association is that Ricky (or is it Rickey) Rubio comes quickly to mind.
The Lakers have combined the best defensive center with one of the worst defensive point guards and put them on a team that needed seven games to get out of the first round before losing in five in the conference semi-finals.
I will stack any number of the defenses from the 80s against this Laker defense. Go back and watch classic games on NBA TV. There was no such thing as lay up against the show time Lakers. They always had three guys (ball-block-first pass) back in defensive transition. Same with the 80s Celtic teams. That’s not even mentioning the Pistons who by the way kept MJ in check for a few years. Defenses in the 80s were so good that the Moses Malone-Dr. J. – Mo Cheeks – Andrew Toney-Bobby Jones Sixers only reached the finals once.
On another note, Iggy on team with Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried could be pretty fun to watch. They won’t go far, but they will get up and down.
To me Howard is a better defender than Chandler. Don’t know how much better, but better. Howard on dribble penetration is like Rodman when the ball would careen off the rim: He just knows where to go and when to be there. Chandler is more of a brutish, physical center to me who clogs things up more than anything. Don’t know which style is better but it sure is fun to watch Howard on defense.
My stance on the Lakers has changed because of Howard; never cared that they picked up Nash. Nash does have huuuge issues defending, but at least they picked up the best rim protection they could get. Has to cancel out on some possessions, right? I don’t know about being legendary because Kobe is a terrible off-the-ball defender in my opinion. More times than not, they’ll need Howard to bail them out. BUT – that is the EXACT option they needed and they got it.
I just puked a little in my mouth…
Right, let’s not get things twisted, I am not rooting for the Lakers. I am not a fan of the new age, free-agency era and certainly not a fan of how easy the big markets can strong arm the lower markets (although the hypocrisy is that I am a Knicks fan). I just look at how athletic and talented the Lakers have become over night and cannot help but think the rest of the league won’t have an answer for them, at least not right away.
It reminds me of when the Celtics added KG and Allen seemingly over night. The rest of the league was not going to catch up with that offense in year one, and they took the ring. Now Miami did not win the title in their first year and I am not saying we should write off the season and let the Lakers parade 10 months early. I am just puzzled on how teams will approach a defense that involves so much ability, even with Nash’s short comings.
And as far as Howard vs. Chandler, Casey that is a good point. Howard is not a mile ahead of Chandler. I do think that Howard makes it look a lot easier, as his physical advantage over opposing big man/guards penetrating into the lane is frightening. I have always been a huge fan of Chandler, even when he was a Bobcat and did a great job of limiting Dwight in the first round. I do not think any Lakers v. Knicks games this year will have “big time implications” on the season, but I will be interested to see how the two big man match-up on December 11.
I am not sold on how all the pieces work together. Not only is Dwight Howard an interesting acquisition regarding how will he fit into the offense, but what about Steve Nash. Forget his defensive struggles, Kobe has never played with a true point guard that will have the ball in his hands for every offensive set. Isn’t Kobe a better play maker with the ball IN his hands? How will he play as more of a spot up shooter as Dwight and Nash run a pick and roll? For the posessions that Kobe does have the ball, we know from experience he will not be looking inside for Howard and this leaves Nash as a mere spot up 3 point shooter. This is slightly reminescent of the Big 3 in Miami. There will definitely be a learning curve, and there is a very real possibility they do not perform up to expectations.