Six games that will mean a whole lot (no promises) come playoff time: Part One

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Joe Manganiello

The NBA released next season’s schedule last week, and the world’s many different NBA fans all chose to celebrate in different ways.

We all have friends who memorize their favorite team’s schedule, then coordinate their own work schedule around when their team appears on television or when they will have to watch the game from their laptop; the kind of friend who uses the pronoun “we” in regard to elongated road trips (“Seriously man, it sucks for us. We got to catch a red-eye flight out to Toronto and play that next night. Then we stay out on the East coast for about a week. We are going to be exhausted. I’m just hoping we split the road trip and come back home with our heads in check); the type of friend who purchases plane tickets for road games the same day the schedule is announced.

We also know many people who are far more casual NBA fans. The de facto “C and E’s” of the NBA fan universe. They watch on Christmas, catch an occasional quarter or two when ESPN or TNT plays their big game of the week and otherwise keep themselves tuned into the day-to-day action with televised highlight packages, internet searches and social media.

Then there are about a million other NBA fans, that just fall somewhere in between. This may or may not include characters like the “I prefer college ball but NBA athletes are amazing” dude or the “I know everything about my team, but nothing about the other 29 teams… Are there 29 other teams?” guy.

No matter how different we all are, we are in total agreement on one thing: the long, grueling regular season is necessary because of how incredible the playoffs are at culminating the sport. Honestly, I would feel guilty if the regular season eluded the dry, restless spots of mid-January or the risk of long-term injury every team faces in late-February and early-March. The 66-game regular season in ’11-’12 was so fast-paced, consequential and absorbing, I actually felt kind of bad that I enjoyed it so much. The fact that we then followed up the most intoxicating and interesting regular season in decades with the much coveted playoffs was similar to eating a thick, warm, gooey brownie; in the moment it tastes unbelievable, but the longer it sits in your stomach, the more sinful you and your expanding gut feel.

Next season’s 82-game season should be a return to normal for NBA fans, as old habits will resurface. Planning weekly “must-see” games while routinely scoping the internet for stats, standings and scoop to fill in any cracks. If the ’11-’12  season was a long sprint for the NBA, then next season will be the much appreciated marathon that NBA fans have grown accustomed to running over the years.

As we welcome in a brand new slate of 1,230 games (simple math: {(30 x 82)/2}) I present to you the six games that will most directly impact our heralded playoffs: one game per month. What do I mean by impact? I’m talking about six games that are guaranteed to be the difference between life and death for each respective team…

Oh, who am I kidding? These are simply the six games that I find the most interesting and that I am hoping, for both your sake and mine, mean something when the first round of the playoffs begin in mid-April. Starting with November’s big game…

November 26: Charlotte Bobcats at Oklahoma City Thunder

It may seem like a huge mistake to include the Bobcat franchise in a piece like this, as even Bobcat fans did not enjoy watching their games last season. That is exactly why I am so interested in the November 26 game, because the Bobcats are unprecedentedly bad.

Last year’s Bobcats were arguably the least talented NBA team of all-time. Their leading scorer was shooting guard Gerald Henderson, at just 15.1 ppg. There were 12 teams in ’11-’12 with a pair of 15.1 ppg scorers, and another four teams had a trio of 15.1 ppg scorers. They had the only offense in the league that scored less than 90 ppg (87.0) and were the only team that’s point differential was worse than -7.2 (-13.9). They had the second worst rebounding differential (-6.0) and were an incredibly average team in both passing (19th in assists) and discipline (21st in turnover differential).

Next year’s installment will not be worse, but it does not appear like it will much better. The team “upgraded” at point guard, signing 26-year-old Ramon Sessions (’11-’12 regular season: 11.3 ppg, 5.5 apg with .479/.486/.713 shooting splits) to replace 24-year-old D.J. Augustin (’11-’12 regular season: 11.1 ppg, 6.4 apg with .376/.341/.875 shooting splits). The Bobcats added veterans Ben Gordon and Brendan Haywood, as well as ultra-talented rookie Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the wing. With a not-half-bad starting lineup and bench players like Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson, the Bobcats should certainly double their winning percentage from ’11-’12. (For the record, they would only have to win 20 games to do that.)

This is all well and good, but I’m not sure even a pack of wild Bobcats could handle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Oklahoma, as this figures to be a game that is over long before it starts. Which is exactly the stage that Kevin Durant needs to utilize, as moments like this are few and far between: the opportunity to completely dominate a basketball game. Durant needs to rid himself of last season’s demons before the Thunder can make another deep run at a title. Durant needs to post an elite scoring performance; not just a career-high, but one for the record books. Think Kobe against Toronto (81 points) or LeBron against the the New York Knicks (35 points in one half).

I want to see Durant make the Bobcats regret joining the league in 2004.

We all saw the Miami Heat win four straight games in the finals, rising up over the Western Conference champions and routing the Thunder for the world to see. We all saw LeBron James jumping around on the sidelines, dancing, smiling and holding the trophy close to his chest in the post-game celebration. Kevin Durant had the worst view of it imaginable.

In a game where his greatest peer posted a triple-double, emphatically sealing his first championship, Durant, himself, did not play badly at all. He shot 54 percent from the field, and 50 percent from three-point range. He added 11 rebounds, three assists and two steals. It seemed like whenever the ball was in his hands, he made something happen.

His running bank shot at the end of the first half brought the game back within ten, and his three-pointer fourteen seconds into the third quarter then brought the game within seven points. After a Miami run, Durant scored four points in thirty seconds and brought it back to a seven-point game with 7:27 to go in the third quarter.

Following the Durant jump shot (giving him 21 points on the night I might add) Oklahoma City’s youth kicked in and proved lethal, as two critical things happened: the Thunder stopped giving Durant the basketball and Miami went on a historic 26-9 run to the end the third quarter that will live in NBA finals infamy.

From the 7:27 minute mark until the final whistle of the third quarter, Durant had three field goal attempts (2-3, 5 points) and was passed the ball an inexcusably low amount of times. In a game that was quickly slipping away, the NBA’s three-time leading scorer was seemingly exiled from the Thunder offense during the final seven-and-a-half minutes of the third quarter, in favor of Westbrook (1-7 FG, 2-4 FT) and Harden (0-3 FG, two turnovers). Miami at one point posted an 11-0 run in between Durant shot attempts, and was ahead by 24 points by the end of the quarter. The NBA finals was over in a matter of seven-and-a-half minutes.

How could that be the way the ’11-’12 season ended, not just for Thunder fans or Thunder players, but for an entire universe of fans who were so vehemently against the villainess Miami Heat and the world’s best and most polarizing player, LeBron James? The Thunder, who swept the defending champion Mavericks in the first round, battled past the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round and shocked the world by keeping San Antonio, the NBA’s best offense, in check in a six-game series, were supposed to be an unstoppable force. Much like how the Mavericks were on a divine mission of superb three-point shooting and timely defensive stops to defeat the Miami Heat in the 2011 NBA finals, the Thunder were called upon by the masses to rescue the league from a Miami title (a job that most people believe the San Antonio Spurs were more than capable of doing), and they simply blew it.

It would be difficult to find another series as tight and competitive as that one was through four games, regardless of Miami’s 3-1 lead. It did not matter, as long as the Thunder brought the series back to Oklahoma City. If they could force a game six, then maybe they could win on their home floor and force a game seven, and in a game seven in Oklahoma City, who knows what would have happened?

Not only did they not do that, they affectively negated the meaning of the ravishing first four games that ended in single-digit affairs. Moments like the Thunder’s 31-point fourth quarter in game one to seal an opening victory, or Durant’s three-pointer late in game two that nearly brought the Thunder all the way back (followed by the “foul or no foul” play on LeBron James) before LeBron made a pair of free-throws or Westbrook’s 43-point performance in game four were all erased as the history books will now show that the Heat, who ended their dream season on a four-game winning-streak, defeated the Thunder swiftly in five games.

(It is at this point that you must be wondering, what in the world does this have to do with November basketball against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats? I’m going to get there, just stay with me.)

Durant’s numbers are dazzling, eye-popping and off the charts. His NBA final’s averages of 30.6 ppg on 54.8 percent shooting (led both teams) are reasons alone why he is already, at the age of 23, a top 2 player in the world. One huge question, however, is in the head of every basketball mind in the sport: how did he stop getting the basketball in game five? Michael would not have let that happen. Kobe? No way. What happened that night to Durant and what does it mean?

Was it young players like Westbrook and Harden making mistakes? A young coach standing on the sidelines without a plan of attack? Or was it just Durant left paralyzed by the moment, unable to stare into the eyes of the same teammates and coaches he defended up and down following the Western Conference finals loss in 2011 and demand that he get the “damn ball” (to quote Kobe Bryant)?

Westbrook has been hearing his entire NBA career that he is Durant’s biggest deterrent and that they cannot co-exist on the same basketball team. A statistic was floating around leading up to the NBA finals that the Thunder had a better record when Westbrook outshot Durant in games, and with his incredible athletic gifts, it is no secret Westbrook has enough confidence to “put the team on his back” whenever they need him (see game four of the NBA finals). Was it wrong for Westbrook to assume it was his job to bring the Thunder back in game five?

Harden hit one of the biggest shots of the playoffs against San Antonio, a dagger three-pointer in game five over Kawhi Leonard. Basketball talking heads had been saying that Harden might be good enough for his “own team” and that the Thunder could be just as good if they got rid of Westbrook and made Harden the team’s starting point guard (which I never truly understood, as Harden’s offensive game clearly equates to a wing position). With all of this chatter around Harden and his skills, was it wrong of him to think it was his job to take the tough shots in the third quarter of an elimination game?

Head coach Scott Brooks has been acclaimed as one of the best young minds the game has seen in years, as he has shown an excellent ability to develop raw talent (Westbrook and Ibaka standout as successful Brooks projects) while creating a well-balanced rotation keeping many scoring options content. Was it wrong for him to stay passive in that third quarter, after watching his team battle out of tough spots all season long? Would Brooks not be micro-managing the team if he demanded Westbrook and Harden back down and let Durant have the ball on every trip down the floor?

The answer to all of these questions is simply, yes. Westbrook was wrong, Harden was wrong and Brooks was dead wrong. Durant needed to have that “dang ball.”

Regardless of whether or not Westbrook and Harden have the gifts to score in bunches (which they do) or if the Thunder would even be playing for the championship without supporting players like Westbrook and Harden (which they would not), Durant has to be the man on the team. Call it “living and dying by the sword” or ball-hogging or whatever you’d like. The fact is that Durant possesses the most unique and challenging offensive game the league has ever seen and he needs to touch the ball every possession. Not shoot every possession, but touch the ball without a doubt.

Think about the difference the simple change of having Durant start with the ball at the top of key would have been for the Thunder that quarter. After Chalmers and Battier combined for consecutive three-pointers and the crowd began to roar, the Thunder could have slowed tempo, used clock, allowed Westbrook to move without the ball and Harden to spot up for three-point looks.

Simple offense: Ibaka or Perkins set a screen for Durant, who enters the lane and then promptly rises about 18-feet from the basket and makes one of his patented jump shots where his hands appear to be above the height of the rim; the following position, you run the same play to the opposite side; then you run it again, but when Durant gets doubled at the foul line, good ball movement from Durant to Ibaka to Westbrook to Harden lands a huge three in the corner. Now the game is moving towards Thunder momentum, and you let Westbrook get a possession to work with. Consider it an experiment: if he pushes the dribble and works an open stop-and-pop jump shot, he “earns” another touch, but if he dribbles into a double team and forces an ill-advised runner that bangs against the back board, Durant takes the ball back permanently (and if Brooks was smart, he would put Westbrook on the bench, much like he did in the 2011 playoffs against Dallas when Eric Maynor played the whole fourth quarter at point guard – keeping in mind Maynor was injured for the 2012 playoffs, but they could have used Fisher in a similar way).

If Durant took that game over and dominated possession of the ball, there is no question that game is a lot closer, if for no other reason as they would not miss as many shots. Think about how many defensive rebounds Westbrook and Harden gave the Heat because of bad shot attempts, and how if that number gets cut in half, the Thunder are probably never down by more than 10 or 12 points. They might have even pulled within single-digits before the game was all said and done, or possibly come back to win and forced a game six.

I do not want to come off like I am living in the past and complaining about the NBA finals that got away months after the fact (even though I am) because this piece is about next season. Durant has to fix these problems, and yes, they are problems. What happened to him and his team cannot happen again in next year’s playoffs. With his abilities and this newly added piece to the puzzle (anger), I expect Durant to waste no time on his way back to the finals.

And it starts on November 26, when the team plays their fifteenth game of the season, at home, against the Bobcats.

Through their first fourteen games, the Thunder have plenty of tests, including their season opener at San Antonio and the two games leading up to the Bobcats, when the Thunder stay on the East coast for a pair of games against Boston and Philadelphia. Also considering that six of their first fourteen games are on the road, it is not to far-fetched to believe the Thunder might get off to a rocky start, particularly coming off the painful finish last season.

This is why the Bobcats game matters so much, because they are going to destroy Charlotte. Not just destroy, they will slaughter them. The Bobcats might score 80 points, having to fight through the long and athletic forwards of the Thunder. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City averaged over 100 ppg in ’11-’12, and I think it is safe to say they will exceed that number at home against Charlotte. The game will be a victory for Oklahoma City, that is without question. Which is why only one person matters that night, and his name is Kevin Durant.

We are talking about a player who can shoot a lot more, as there is a fine line between being unselfish and being gun shy in the NBA, particularly among the all-time greats. Durant has never exceeded 20.3 attempts in a season, and that was the first year of his current three-year scoring title streak. He has followed that up the last two seasons with just 19.7 attempts per game.

To put that in perspective, Dwyane Wade needed about 22 FG attempts per game to lead the league in scoring in ’08-’09, LeBron needed 21.9 FG attempts in ’07-’08 and Kobe needed 22.4 FG attempts in ’06-’07 and 27.2 FG attempts in ’05-’06. If you want to see how far back the stat books go before another scoring champion needed less than 20 shots per game, you have to pass by Iverson and McGrady in the 2000s and MJ, Shaq and David Robinson in the 1990s and more Jordan in the 1980s before landing on hall-of-famer Adrian Dantley in 1982-83, when he needed just 18.2 attempts to score 30.6 points per game and lead the league.

The question is, however, was Dantley a dominant player? Was he the type of player Durant aspires to become? Or does he not want to become Jordan, Kobe and LeBron (NBA finals MVPs)?

While his incredible shooting splits (career averages: .468/.364/.878) are absurd and amazing, you cannot help but wonder if Durant is holding back. What if I told you that Durant only has seventeen 40-point games over the last three seasons (out of 226 regular season games), does that number not seem low? Or how about only one 50-point game, is that not a little shocking?

Or how about in the 2012 playoffs, where despite averaging 28.5 ppg on .517 shooting, he rarely got the look over his face that let everyone know it was his time to take things over. Consider that in the first two games of the post-season against Dallas, he had two of his worst shooting days of the entire season, combining for 15-44 shooting (.341) and got a lot of heat for it. So he “settled down” and brought his attempts back down to 18.8 per game the rest of the playoffs. As a result, he never eclipsed the 40-point mark during playoffs, which speaks loudly to Durant’s need to take over games.

He scored 36 points against the Spurs in game four on 13-20 shooting (.650), and he only attempted two three-pointers. That is unnecessary caution, as Durant should have demanded he continue shooting with the hot hand during stretches in the second half, as well as in the first half when he attempted all of four shots. He did the same thing in the elimination game against the Spurs, when he shot 9-17 (.529), but only attempted five field goals in the second and third quarter (6-10 shooting combined) and one field goal attempt in the fourth quarter (granted he did go 6-8 from the foul line in the fourth quarter).

Durant really would not have to change that much about his game to become a more insistent scorer. Let us go out on a limb and say that his ideal scoring game in this stage of his career is about 2.5-5 shooting each quarter, netting him a field goal percentage around .500 and a point total around 30 (consider that if he makes 10 field goals per game, and even two of them are three-pointers, he would be at 22 points before factoring in free throws – he averages 6.9 per game for his career – which would give him 28.9 points per game roughly). What if he makes a minor adjustment to his game and begins setting up inside the arc more frequently, in the style of Kobe or LeBron?

Note that this this does not help the “Westbrook does not pass the ball” issue, but let Sam Presti and Scott Brooks do their jobs on that issue.

If Durant sets up inside more often, as opposed to his current game which thrives on spot up jump shots (which Harden already provides the Thunder) and isolation plays (which Westbrook provides), then a natural rise to 22 or 23 field goal attempts per game seems about right. Even if it appears his career averages would drop in field goal percentage (.468 would probably fall to .450 with added field goal attempts) and three-point attempts (Durant was attempting over 5.2 three-point field goals the last two seasons, which would probably fall back down to 3.5 or 4 attempts per game with an added interest inside the arc), Durant would make more field goals per game as a back to the basket threat whereas right now he is primarily a jump shooter.

If he can get 20-25 touches inside the arc every game next season, you figure his field goals made and field goal percentages will actually increase, plus turnovers will decrease and assists will rise. Durant could easily post a stat line similar to Kobe’s ’09-’10 season (27.0 ppg, 5.0 apg, 5.4 rpg, with shooting splits of .456/.329/.811), except keep in mind that Durant has not shot less than .350 from three-point land since his rookie season and is taller than Kobe, giving him an edge with his back to the basket and around the post. Durant could probably add a full two-point and three-point basket more to his stat line than Kobe did that season (Kobe averaged 9.8 FGM in ’09-’10, Durant has averaged 9.7 FGM the last two seasons) and score about 32 ppg. If Durant sets a new career-high in scoring, assists and continues to be the second-highest rebounder on the team, plus creates a demand to possess the basketball on the majority of Thunder possessions, Durant could make a scary leap in ’12-’13.

Which leads me to my conclusion, the Bobcats better be worried on November 26. Durant’s career-high is currently 51 points, but I do not think that mark is safe. Let’s face it – nobody will be surprised to see the Bobcats embarrassed and out of the playoff hunt by late-November. Which is just more bad news for the Bobcats, a team that has had a lot of bad news recently.