Tale Of The Tape: Rubio vs. Lin

By Kyle Soppe

Two point guards have jumped onto the scene to start this NBA season, with Linsanity winning the popularity contest and constantly trending on Twitter. But does the difference in coverage and hype truly portray the statistical difference between these two young studs?

Weighing in at 200 pounds and standing 6’4″ … Jeremy Lin. The man who has been an elite talent at every level of basketball, but is continuously overlooked by scouts. He plays in The Big Apple, where the Knicks roster has the likes of repeat all stars Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire He unquestionably wins the nickname battle, and offers the better “underdog story” as an undrafted player from Harvard.

The shaggy Rubio comes in at 180 pounds in a slender 6’3″ frame. Drafted fifth overall in the 2009, “Testigo” has been playing professional ball since he turned 14 years of age. He plays in Minnesota with possibly the most talented big man in the game today in Kevin Love. Rubio started the season as a reserve, but was inserted into the starting lineup as he outplayed those ahead of him.

For the sake of comparison, I will evaluate Rubio’s first 15 career starts (dating from January 13th to February 7th) and compare Lin’s six career starts to them. The reasoning behind using these parameters is to compare Rubio’s production over an extended period of time, and what we can expect from Lin moving forward. Both players average between 38-39 minutes per game, so that isn’t a confounding variable. In addition to projecting Lin, it is worth acknowledging Rubio’s greatness.

With the stage set, and the NBA world in the midst of Lin’s run, let’s take emotion out of this, and take a pure look at the numbers. Lin has proven to be the better scorer, and we will revisit that point shortly. But first, both are point guards that have been described as “play makers” and “pass first” ring leaders who make those around them better. Rubio handed out 9.87 assists per game, while Lin is a tad behind with 9.5 helpers per contest. With Stoudemire back in action, Lin’s assist totals figure to be here to stay, but I’ve got my questions when Melo returns. While the two may be able to co-exist, Melo’s ability to create his own shot figures to take away from Lin’s assist opportunities. Rubio is the flashier passer and is working with less talent, so his assists are based more on his abilities than the gifted players around them. Both have proven the ability to find the open man at an elite level, but with less changing to Rubio’s situation, I like his potential moving forward a little more than Lin’s from a passing standpoint.

The argument for Rubio can be made when it comes to valuing the basketball. The Timberwolve averaged 3.07 turnovers per game (more than three assists per turnover) while Lin is turning the ball over six times per game (a shade over 1.5 assists per turnover). Lin’s turnover ratio figures to decline with the return of Melo, but the odds of him cutting the turnovers in half is to much to expect.

Not sexy stats, but important nonetheless, are rebounds for a guard and thefts. Lin is averaging a respectable 3.83 rebounds to go along with 1.5 steals per game. Neither are elite numbers, but they are solid. Again, the return of Stoudemire and Melo would seem to indicate that Lin’s rebound totals may have already peaked. Rubio’s sticky fingers accounted for three steals per game in his first 15 starts, including six games with at least four steals. Despite being 20 pounds lighter, Rubio is more of a presence on the glass as well, with 4.87 rebounds per game.

Alrighty, now onto the scoring difference, the driving factor behind Super Lintendo. Lin is pouring in 24.33 points per game over his six game streak that has the NY Stock Market on fire. While his shot attempts have dipped a bit (26 shots in two games with Stoudemire), Lin is taking 17.33 field goals a night. Compare that to Rubio’s 11.8 points per game on 10.33 shots, and it seems clear that Lin will always dominate this area. Yes, Lin is more aggressive than Rubio and appears to have a better feel of where shot blockers are. But neither shoots the ball particularly well, meaning teams will begin to adjust. Rubio faced that adjustment period and is now adapting his game and implementing more drives to the basket and mid range jumpers. With Kevin Love spreading the floor, I could see Rubio’s shot total increasing as the season does, as they don’t have a true paint-clogging big. Growing more comfortable, and with teams playing off of him, it would not shock me to see Rubio average roughly four more shots per game.

The opposite is true with the Knicks, who have Tyson Chandler (who, until further notice, is not allowed to shot from beyond the restricted zone) and Amar’e on the blocks. Not to mention that Melo has worked on exploiting physical match ups by taking the quick, but undersized, forward that typically guards him into the paint. That combined with teams game planning for Lin, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project closer to 13 shots per game. Make those adjustments, and by using their points per shot (Rubio – 1.14 and Lin – 1.4), the difference in points per game shrinks from 12.5 to 1.5.

Any objections? Linsanity is sweeping the nation, but the Spaniard is a well kept secret. If the points decrease, I struggle to find an advantage for Lin. Sure, his team is 6-0 in games in which he has started, but they won’t win them all, even if he puts up numbers like these all year. I’ve made my feeling well felt about Rubio, where do you stand on this debate?