By Kyle Soppe
We’ve got 13 games on the slate this week, and none of them include two teams over .500. That being said, you would think there are a ton of mismatches. That’s not true, as we see some under performing teams trying to rebound. Read ’em and weep, here are your week 7 picks.
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (+1.5) (@ London) – Bucs 24-17
Washington (+2.5) @ Carolina – Redskins 27-21
San Diego (-2) @ New York Jets – Chargers 31-20
Houston @ Tennessee (-3) – Titans 21-17
Denver (+1.5) @ Miami – Broncos 24-20
Atlanta (+3) @ Detroit – Falcons 24-23
Kansas City @ Oakland (-4.5) – Raiders 31-21
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Arizona – Steelers 34-17
Saint Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas – Cowboys 27-17
Green Bay (-8.5) @ Minnesota – Packers 31-21
Indianapolis (+14) @ New Orleans – Saints 38-27
Baltimore (-7.5) @ Jacksonville – Ravens 31-10
One would think I am due for a break out week on these weeks. For the year I am 46-42-2 against the spread, and 58-32 picking winners outright. The Chargers and Ravens are my favorite picks of the week, so hopefully I can start off hot. Thoughts on my picks or week seven in general?
The Browns lucked out with their first five weeks: Andy Dalton’s first Cincy start, the Manning-less Colts, the free-falling Dolphins, a decent Titans team, then Kyle Boller’s falling into their laps in Oakland … and somehow they’re 2-3. Not a good sign. Also not good: The offense is averaging 3.3 yards per run and 5.5 yards per pass attempt, which basically says, “We need to execute a series of long, boring drives to win football games while getting no big plays whatsoever.” Meanwhile, the Seahawks played a much better slew of teams (Niners, Steelers, Cardinals, Falcons and Giants) and found an identity in those past three games. What’s that identity? Rock-solid mediocrity. But still. My not-really-an-upset special, Part 2: Seahawks 20, Browns 10.
Going less with the Falcons and more against an increasingly shaky-looking Lions team: They have the worst running backs in the league with Jahvid Best out, no possession receiver for those third-and-8s, no rush defense at all … just seems like Atlanta is catching them at the right time. Remember, the Niners threw a 25-9 run on the Lions to close out last Sunday’s game — that was the third time in four weeks that someone had a +16 run against Detroit. Good teams don’t get beat for prolonged stretches like that.
Like everyone else, I looked at this matchup on Monday, thought to myself, I love the Chargers … and then the line started moving … and it kept moving … and at some point, it started to look like a trap. Put it this way: Has anyone blown more winnable games than San Diego over the past few years? And has anyone ever lucked into more garbage victories than the Jets over the past two-plus seasons? This feels like one of those “Rivers throws for 435 yards and three killer red zone picks” games, followed by LDT and Cromartie celebrating a little too lustily when it’s over, then everyone getting mad that they celebrated a little too lustily, followed by the Chargers lobbing some grenades at them after the fact. This will be fun.
Great statement about the Chargers, Simmons. Which is why I continue to hate any love given towards Rivers. I despise that guy and he has won zero big games.
Giving away a first and a second pick for Carson Palmer was like paying full sticker price on a 2006 BMW M3 with 165,000 miles on it. This will end badly. My upset special: Chiefs 24, Raiders 20. Meanwhile, can anyone else see this exchange happening during ESPN’s Halloween Monday Night Countdown show:
Steve Young: “Guys, if the Chiefs beat San Diego at home tonight, suddenly they’re looking at a share of the AFC West lead with easy home games against Miami and Denver coming up. Who could have guessed that four weeks ago?????”
Trent Dilfer: “That’s why you can never count anyone out after two weeks in the National Football League!!!!!”
Stu Scott: “Guys, the Chiefs and Chargers have played on Monday night 23 times. All 23 times, the team that scored the most points won the game. We’ll be back after this.”
Sam Bradford is out and the Rams are in Dallas. Can Romo blow this one??
i dont think its possible for him to blow this, unless he throws a score or 2 to the Rams. No Bradford, 2 new receivers, and against the leagues top run defense. If they lose here, more is wrong than Romo, and Texas becomes a strictly baseball town. Although they may lose to STL in that as well 🙂
Do you think the NFL schedulers had this is mind when they scheduled New Orleans/ Indianapolis for Sunday night? 3rd quarter and the Saints already have already put 48 on the board. Ouch.
Great call by both Kyle and Simmons on the Lions falling. Did I see that Chiefs-Raiders score right? 48-0???? I don’t know how vehement I was about Kevin Kolb being paid an unbelievably stupid amount of money, but I am thrilled that he’s proving that all leagues should not only monitor rookie contracts, but contracts for backups who shine for short periods of time. Matt Cassell, Kolb, Jeff Hostetler, and whoever else I’m missing. What a complete waste of money on someone unproven.
I would also like to thank the Miami Dolphins for forcing us to put up with all the “Tebow doesn’t have to be a QB because he is a WINNER” campaign. By losing to the Dolphins, we could have all bid adieu to the Tebow lovefest, but with the Bronco’s comeback in the last 3 minutes we will now be subjected to at least another week of Tebow-Tube and Tebow-Talk. I think we should make Tebow into a verb. I got Tebowed. It’s like when you keep trying to leave something behind (a car, a toy, a video game, a girl) but it keeps manifesting itself every few weeks into something slightly useful and you blow it way out of proportion like it’s great, only to realize that you have to get rid of it because it is annoying everyone else and really isn’t as good as you thought. Tebow was just about to fade away in the perfect situation – losing to the lowly Dolphins – and we got Tebowed in the last 3 minutes. Now he’s back for another week.
28-0 Chiefs. It helps when you replace a QB who threw 3 picks with a QB who would go on to throw 3 more. Both QB’s threw TD’s to the wrong team. This can’t be what the Raiders had in mind … You’re right about the Fins leaving the door open for Tebow mania. If anything, they increased the hype, by leading for the majority of the game. Drew had access to the game, so I’ll leave the analysis up to him. But from a statistical perspective, he wasn’t bad with 220 total yards and 2 scores. Next week is an interesting match up against the Lions. Some would think that Suh and company would dominate him, but I am taking the flip side. They will pressure him, and force him to run. We can agree he is a good athlete and can make more plays with his feet than his arm. That will be interesting to watch
Rey, good idea, although I’d say “Tebow” is a bit close to “teabag,” and that could get ugly, depending upon what kind of crowd you run with.
Yeah it’s close to tea party and discussing politics can get messy.
Welcome back Carson Palmer. NFL defenses have missed you.
Tebow looked AWWWWWFUL for 56 minutes. However, Tebow supporters argue that he just finds a way to win and it’s tough to disagree with that.
The game that surprised me the most was the SD/NYJ game. I really thought SD was poised to blow that one wide open. I also thought Tampa would beat the Bears and was pretty confident in that pick. Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess.
Drew, I tried watching that SD/NYJ game yesterday and was shocked at how bad the Chargers played in the second half. They dominated the first half and they were equally awful in the second half. Is anyone impressed with the Jets? They haven’t looked good in their last 2 wins. I read that they are on the road for 5 of the next 7 weeks – they need to play better for them to be in a position to make the playoffs. And trust me – I hope they don’t.
Count me in for now using Tebow as a verb. The Patriots will look to tebow the Steelers this week. 🙂
If you need proof that the NFL is an up and down league, look forward to Exhibit A – Jacksonville knocks of Baltimore last night. How does that happen?
Bill – I think the two terms are actually synonyms 🙂