By Kyle Soppe
Setting: The upstart Cardinals will benefit from home field advantage for the first time in this postseason, thanks in large part to Prince Fielder’s All Star game HR. Both teams have used hot bats to make it here, but the pitching consistency should determine this year’s World Series Champion.
Plot: CJ Wilson will battle Chris Carpenter in game one, under the arches in Saint Louis. Wilson was the Rangers ace over the 162 game season (16-7 2.94), but in the postseason (0-2 8.04), he has been a liability. In his three postseason starts, he has watched six balls leave the park and opposing teams hit .318 against him. Carpenter (2-0 3.71) on the other hand, has excelled when his team has needed him most. The staff ace pitched a gem against Doc Halladay in game five of the first round, but this line up is superior compared to the ones he has shut down thus far. Carpenter is one of the better pitchers in the game that doesn’t have a good nickname, thoughts or ideas?
Neither manager has showed their hand as far as starting pitchers go. The Cardinals rely heavily on a bullpen that may be overworked, as none of their starters last more than 5 innings in the NLCS. Lance Lynn, Arthur Rhodes, and Jason Motte have made a combined 17 postseason appearances (15 innings pitched), and have yet to surrender a run. Texas boosts a similar trio (Scoot Feldman, Mike Gonzalez, and Yoshinori Tateyama) that has a scoreless streak of 10.2 innings this postseason. The Cardinals and Rangers pitching staffs have allowed opponents to hit an identical .241 in the 2011 postseason.
When it comes to swinging the lumber, both teams excel. The redbirds have hit for a much higher average this postseason (.288 compared to the Rangers .259), but the runs per game is just about even. The Rangers have used Nelson Cruz in the 7 hole to make their lineup well balanced from top to bottom, but they are expected to move him up in the order to ensure he gets more at bats. While Cruz has garnered all of the attention, and rightfully so with six homers in six games against the Tigers, the Rangers are as deep a lineup as there is in the MLB. With burner Elvis Andrus at the top of the order, and power 2-7 in the forms of Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli, Mike Young, and Nelson Cruz, Texas plans punish the Cardinal starters. The big bats have struggled with strikeouts from time to time, a strength of the Cardinals bullpen. As for the when Saint Louis takes their cracks, the attack begins with Albert Pujols. The best hitter in the game dictates how pitchers approach this powerful lineup, and has been well protected by a healthy Matt Holliday. Lance Berkman, the NL Comeback Player of the Year, has struggled this postseason (.237 batting average with only two extra base hits) and needs to step it up if these games are as high scoring as projected. The Cardinals, not to be outdone by the Rangers game plan, have had David Freese producing at the bottom third of their lineup. This postseason has seen Freese hit .425 with more than half of his hits going for extra bases. Expect runs early in these games, and the team that is leading after six innings most often to win the series.
Final Word: The Cardinals are 28-12 in their last 40 games. For the regular season, the Cardinals and Rangers struck out fewer than any other team in the league. The Rangers, however, have relied on striking batters out this postseason, with five pitchers registering more K’s than innings pitched. Hard to imagine that the Cardinals K rate increases much, so the Rangers will have to find a new way out of jams.
Soppe Score: Vegas put the Cardinals at long shots (+1800) to win the worlds series, and they figure to be an underdog for the third straight series. Some may argue that the Cards have beaten two teams (Phillies and Brewers) that have more total talent than the Rangers. I’ll ride the hot Cardinals who seem to be on a mission. Attempting to outslug Fat Albert and company is a risky proposition, and I think Dave Duncan and the Cardinals pitching staff can tip toe around Rangers bats. Champagne shower for the visitors: I’ve got the Cardinals in five.
Is that the Arthur Rhodes who once played for the Red Wings??? If it is, I remember seeing him pitch at SILVER STADIUM. How old is he????
YES! That is THE Arthur Rhodes! He is the man. Smitty – do you remember him pitching on turn-back-the-clock day?
The one and only!
Rhodes is a 19 year vet who is 41 years young. His career era is 4.08, but none of that matters. He is pitching like a kid in his prime right now. It only has to last at most 7 more games. The pride of Silver Stadium is throwing the same pitches he was when I was born, and finding ways to get major league hitters out. Would love to see a few scoreless frames outta him this week
I remember Rhodes pitching at Silver several times. Everyone thought he was going to a great starting pitching, but it never really panned out. Instead he has had quality career as a reliever.
Speaking of relief, R-O-L-A-I-D-S. is the key to this series the team’s bullpens? Both teams starting pitching the LCS was over 4 and if it comes down to it – I think the Rangers have the better bullpen. I am getting tired of talking about bullpens. 🙂
I think the lineups are about even with maybe an edge going to Texas…maybe.
Does it come down to which team gets quality starts from their starting pitching? I think this series goes the full 7 games and I think the Rangers win.
Lineups are even? No way. Big edge to Texas on the offensive side.
Texas in 6.
Need I remind you there are no Ryan Theriot’s in the Rangers lineup, and Mike Napoli makes Yadier Molina look more like his brother Jose.
Actually Chas, I would argue that Chris Gentry and Endy Chavez are a Ryan Theriot equivalent. Not sure if they will be in the lineup for the series, but if they are – they are similar.
So no, you don’t have to remind me.
Yeah, but David Murphy is the primary left fielder, and Gentry is a bench player.
True, but both of them played in the last series. Not sure if it was for match up reasons or if was for injury reasons.
On paper, I agree with you that the Rangers have the better lineup, but the Cards have been scoring some runs. If Pujols has a huge series, I am not sure if Hamilton and Cruz are equivalent answers. Then again if Cruz hits 7 hrs in this series, this conversation could be moot.
OK, I was probably just picking nits, I guess. But, let’s compare the lineups, by position in the batting order (more relevant than position on the field, I think):
1. Kinsler (TEX) over Furcal, by a lot.
2. Jay (STL) over Andrus, by a little.
3. Pujols (STL) over Hamilton.
4. Berkman (STL) over Young, by a little.
5. Holliday (STL) over Beltre, by a little.
6. Napoli (TEX) over Freese.
7. Cruz (TEX) over Molina, by a lot.
8. Murphy (TEX) over Punto/Theriot, by a lot.
So, I’ve got four in favor of Texas and four in favor of St. Louis, but three of Texas’s edges are sizable, and three of St. Louis’s are minimal. The DH edge probably goes to Texas, in that it allows them to upgrade defensively at C with Torrealba. But, we’re talking about offense here, so interestingly enough, I might give the edge to St. Louis (assuming Allen Craig is their DH).
I still say Texas is better offensively, especially considering they’re more well-balanced, but I may have overstated it as a big edge (I was originally going to say huge).
On another note, now that Yuniesky Betancourt is sitting at home watching, Ryan Theriot can take his place as the most universally derided player in the postseason: https://wrigleyville23.com/2010-articles/june/clarifying-the-tootblan.html
It seems to me that Texas is the vastly superior hitting team. Nelson Cruz bats 7th for God’s sake! I think CJ Wilson will pitch much better tonight than he has the rest of the postseason and I think Texas is definitely the better team.
However, St Louis feels like the team of destiny, if there is such a thing. I think the top of the lineup gets on just enough for Pujols, Berkman, Holliday and Freese to be big time run producers. I think it is going to be a high scoring series that St Louis wins in six games.
MVP goes to Pujols.
Too bad it’s the last thing he ever wins as a Cardinal???
Drew – Love the prediction (the world series winner that is). Destiny cannot be overstated. However, the point about Pujols’ Cardinal career ending, I am not a supporter of. He wants to get paid like hes the best hitter in the game. The Cardinals may not break the bank for him, but they won’t low ball him. Winning the NL this year I think has secured Cardinal nation their Superman. How can he justify leaving? He isn’t the type to use money as a motivator, and the contract he signs in Saint Louy will be nothing to sneeze at. #5 aint going anywhere … Prince Fielder on the other hand, sounded like a man on the move. Cubs? Giants? where you guys think he’ll go?
I think Prince is on his way to the North Side as Theo’s first big acquisition. He seems like he’ll take whoever is offering the biggest contract. I could see the Cubs making the biggest offer, if St Louis loses out on Albert I could see them throwing some money towards Prince, I think SanFran, the Angels, the Red Sox are all in play. Probably wouldn’t list the Crew as a top 5 option for him.
I think either Fielder or Pujols will end up playing home games at Wrigley next year.
Maybe the one thing we all forgot to consider (well, Kyle kind of did) is that the Cards have the best pitcher in the series, in Carpenter (who I believe is nicknamed Carp by the St. Louis brethren, but that may not be creative enough for you).
C.J. Wilson probably had a better year than Carpenter, but not by much, and I doubt there are many people who’d rather have Wilson as the ace of their staff than Carpenter.
Wilson has been terrible this postseason. Last night was his best game, and 3 earned isnt terrible or anything but you want your ace pitcher to win you a game in the postseason, and he hasn’t done that once.
Some team will still give him an 80million dollar contract this offseason though. I think he’s a very good #2 or a low end #1.
Allen Craig for MVP.
I was thinking the same thing, Rey, if that 1-0 lead had held up.
Holland goes high and tight on his first offering to Pujols, and I might bring back POTW.
I always thought POTW was a good way to kick off the week and get us through those Monday blues.
Speaking of tebow and its latest creation on the Pine – how might it be used considering last night’s developments?
Oh – very simple. I’m sure this isn’t the first time in history that the bullpen phone was a problem. Not often, but every now and then I’m sure it causes a problem as it did last night. So just when we thought LaRussa had it all figured out and was going to checkmate the Rangers, the bullpen phone tebowed him.
Helmet Sticker!