By Kyle Soppe
Much has been made of Aaron Rodgers and his extreme success since he became the Packers starter in 2008, but how good is he really? Is he simply a product of a good situation in Cheesehead country (the Brett Favre argument)? Explain it however you’d like, but one thing is clear: what Aaron Rodgers is doing in 2011 is as impressive as any season we’ve ever seen.
The remaining schedule hints at Rodgers continuing his record setting pace. Of his remaining 11 games, 7 of his opponents rank in the bottom half of the league when defending the pass. And that doesn’t include 2 games against a weak Lions secondary that have yet to be exposed as a result of their opponents (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Kansas City, and Chicago). With Chad Clifton injured, the running game will be as nonexistent as ever (already averaging under 100 rush yards per game, putting them in the bottom 10 in the league). Other than the Lions, the two defenses that stand in Rodgers’ way are the Rams and Chargers and they haven’t surrendered many passing yards . Both of whom rank in the bottom half of the league in QB rating against.
Three of the teams the Packers have played thus far (Denver, New Orleans, and Carolina) rank in the top 2/3 of the league in stopping the pass. That may not sound all that impressive, but when you take into account what Rodgers did to these defenses, it is quite the accomplishment to rank favorable to a dozen teams. The Panthers and Saints gave up a combined 620 yards and 5 TD’s to Rodgers, with no turnovers. For context, the Panthers are giving up 211.75 pass yards in their other 4 games while the Saints surrender 230.75 yards per contest. Clearly, Rodgers has torched defenses that are statistically superior to the defenses left on his 2011 schedule.
Last year, Rodgers compiled borderline MVP numbers that included nearly 4,000 yards and a 28:11 TD to INT ratio. Through 5 games, he had 9 scores compared to 6 picks, and a 92.58 QB rating to go with 1,233 passing yards. This year, he has 1,721 yards to go with 14 TD’s and only 2 interceptions. His current QB rating of 122.9 would be the most efficient season of all time, topping 2007 MVP Tom Brady (117.2) and 2004 MVP Peyton Manning (121.1). His completion percentage is on the rise from season to season, and this season is no different. He had increased his completion percentage from 64.7 to 65.7 last year, and is up to 71.7 this year. Should he continue that type of precision, he would break Drew Brees’ 2009 record of 70.6%. Over his limited time in the NFL, he has peaked in the second half of the season, making his fast start a bonus. In his final 8 games of 2010, Rodgers’s QB rating was nearly 30 points higher (115.92 as compared to 86.48) than the first 8 games.
With his track record and hot start, Rodgers is poised to set NFL records this year. NFL purists will tell you that today’s game is tailored to offenses, because points sell tickets. This may be true, but Rodgers is not only statistically superior to those who came before him, he is also quickly ascending the list of current QB’s. Brady plays by the same rules, but Rodgers has been more effective and consistent. Others will contribute to the naive argument that “all the Packers do is throw the ball all over the place.” The 2011 Packers pass the ball 36.2 times per game, ranking them 13th in the NFL in pass attempts. Matt Ryan is everybody’s golden child, so why can’t he put up gaudy numbers on a team that passes 63% of the time, when Rodgers can for an offense that throws it 59% of the time?
To further demonstrate just how good Aaron Rodgers has been this year, I put together a statistic in which I like to call “Elite Passer Rating”. A quarterback’s EPR is calculated using the following formula:
(Average yards per pass attempt)*(TD per INT)*(team winning %)*(completion % + % of team plays that are passes)+(TD-INT)
This equation measures some of the greatest all time quarterback seasons and ranks them. Team success and offensive philosophy play into this, as a truly elite season should be a rare occurrence. Clearly, “elite” seasons will be more common as the game continues to progress to a QB driven league, but even in this day and age of pass first offenses, we have only seen two elite performances. An EPR score at the end of the regular season of 85 or better is considered an elite season.
The first season in which a score of over 85 was reached was in 2004, when MVP Peyton Manning scored 87.44. This was the greatest statistical season in the magnificent career of Manning, totaling over 4,500 passing yards and 49 TD’s. However, Tom Brady set the new standard during his record breaking 2007 season. Brady’s EPR was 107.73, thanks in large part to an unbeaten season and a record 50 TD passes. Considered to be the most dominant season ever for a QB, Brady ranks number 1 in all time EPR for this epic season. Other notable seasons and their EPR include: Kurt Warner and the “Greatest Show on Turf” of 1999 (EPR score of 59.17), Steve Young’s top year in 1994 (54.67), and Daunte Culpepper when teamed up with Randy Moss, who was a big part of Brady’s record year, in 2004 (46.84).
That being said, this year’s version of Aaron Rodgers is on the verge of “elite” status. Through 5 games, Rodgers’ EPR is 99.46. Now, it is early in the season, and the Packers aren’t likely to go undefeated, but Rodgers’ counting stats shouldn’t dip much. As stated earlier, the schedule doesn’t get tougher, and Rodgers seems likely to produce at a very high level. Keep in mind that the last part of my formula (TD’s – INT’s) will increase as the season progresses. Brady recorded a score of 42 for that portion (50-8) and Rodgers is only at 12 (14-2) as of right now.
It is as if a flip was switched and the Packers have become absolutely methodical. I was willing to look at their Super Bowl as somewhat of catching lightning in a bottle – like the Giants and the Helmet Catch. But the Pack is stopping for no one. Yeah, they have a great system, but it takes a great and smart QB to commit to a system. Rodgers is getting it done.
Wondering if the matchup against the Lions might pose some problems. Detroit won the last meeting between the tw. Does this give GB some motivation? Or, do the Lions have some answers that others don’t?
How much of having a couple of years on the bench to learn and prepare helped Aaron Rodgers? We see so many of these QBs coming out of college thrust into a starting role or are forced to learn on the fly. They either sink or swim. I think Rodgers was going to be a good NFL quarterback – I think he is better because they had time to develop him.
As for that Lions matchup. Unless the Packers get their O-Line problems fixed, that might be a long night for Rodgers.
Smitty – good point. The idea of letting QBs come out of college, hold a clipboard and learn for a couple of years has been lost. The Pack made a good call with Rodgers and showed the patience necessary for him to be successful.
It doesn’t hurt that Rodgers was a top prospect out of college and fell in the draft. During draft week, it was thought to be between Rodgers and Alex Smith for the top spot. Obviously, the 49ers selected Smith, while Rodgers fell to the 20’s. Getting to watch is a nice luxury, but a mentor is nice as well. And as memory serves, Favre was less than welcoming to his successor.
The Packers have handled Rodgers well, and all the pieces have fallen perfectly thus far. It doesn’t happen often, and that is why I think we should appreciate what is going on in Green Bay
And Kyle look at the flip side of that comparison. Alex Smith has been through 20 offensive coordinators, is on his 3rd or 4th head coach, and has been a mess. Okay the 20 coordinators is an exaggeration, but he has looked great this year. The fact that Harbaugh is there and Smith’s recent success – I don’t think it is a coincidence.
If you’re launching a new QB rating metric, you should probably put in a couple of fail-safe measures to make sure that Smith doesn’t hold your record through five weeks. Is it too late for the QBR inventors to add this tweak: “Minus-10 points if your name is Alex Smith”?
Green Bay is doing Bill Belichick’s Bill Belichick routine as well or better than Bill Belichick ever did. The latest: The Packers lost their left tackle and plugged in 2010 fifth-rounder Marshall Newhouse, who kept their offensive line going without it missing a beat. Shades of Troy Brown playing nickelback during a Super Bowl season. When you can keep rolling no matter what happens, you know you’ve built something special.