By Kyle Soppe
Plot: These are two teams that will be playing more than 162 games this year; that much is not in question. The Phillies have been the league’s best team from the start, while the Brewers have come on strong after the all-star break. As anybody will tell you, it’s not about how you start the season, but rather how you finish it. Both of these teams are looking to gain momentum for what could be a future NLCS matchup.
Setting: The BrewCrew relies heavily on their strong nucleus of hitters. Paced by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, the Brewers have actually outscored the Phillies on the season. Rickie Weeks may be able to return for this series, providing the Brewers with an offensive jolt that is just icing on their cake. They are near unbeatable at Miller Park, where they have won 50 of 69 contests. The Phillies are no slouch on offense, but it is their pitching that has them atop the NL. On top of the pitching, their ability to win on the road (42-26) has made them immune to losing streaks of any kind.
This series starts on Thursday night, when Cole Hamels (13-7 2.63) takes on Chris Narveson (10-6 4.26). Hamels is the under-appreciated ace of the Phillies staff as he has been as dependable as they come. His 4.45 strikeout to walk ratio ranks him among the league leaders, but ranks him 3rd on his own team. Opponents are only batting .210 off of Hamels, so the Brewers will need to make the most of their scoring opportunities (a must versus any of the Philly starters).
Narveson, as is the case with nearly every Brewer, is much better when pitching at home. He is 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA and gets more run support at home. Narveson has only gone 7+ innings 4 times on the year, and if he can’t accomplish that on Thursday, the Brewers will be in rough shape. Narveson hasn’t lost since July 15th, but he has only registered one quality start over that time.
Roy Halladay (16-5 2.49) takes the mound Friday night, looking to continue yet another outstanding season. The stats, while impressive, don’t tell the whole story. Sure, the 7 complete games and a 4th straight season with 200+ k’s is nice, but the comfort that he gives Charlie Manuel cannot be measured. He gives the bullpen a night off, and relaxes his teammates, as they know a run or 2 will be enough. There is something to be said for consistency, and being consistently great is Roy Halladay.
The Brewers will counter the Phillies leading Cy Young contender with Shawn Marcum (12-5 3.11). Marcum is having a solid season, but is actually more effective on the road. He shut down the Phillies way back in April, but the lineup with Hunter Pence is simply much better. When playing the Phillies, there is a need for perfection, but Marcum has been up to the task of late. In 8 of his last 10 starts he has given up 2 runs or less, which he will need to keep up in this one. If there is an upset to be had, this very well could be it.
After an unbLEEviable (thanks Chas) August, Cliff Lee (16-7 2.47) looks to continue his late push as a potential game 1 starter in the playoffs. He has won his last 7 starts, 5 of which he did not give up a run. In all 7 of those starts, Lee has gone at least 7 innings and struck out 6 batters. Simply put, the man is on top of his game, and is a bad matchup for any offense.
Randy Wolf (12-9 3.47) will face the Phillies lineup with the pressure to be perfect. He has a WHIP of 1.28 on the season, and has surrendered 20 homers this year, roughly the same amount as Halladay and Hamels put together. Wolf has a better record at home (7-3), but his ratios are the same, meaning he just benefits from run support. Counting on much more than 2 runs against Lee is a risky proposition, and expecting Wolf to shut down a playoff caliber team (something he hasn’t done in over a month) is wishful thinking.
The series wraps up on Sunday with surprise rookie Vance Worley (11-1 2.85) opposing Yovani Gallardo (15-10 3.71). When talking about Sir-Vance-A lot, one date says it all: May 29th. That was the last time the Phillies lost a game started by Worley, an unprecedented string of victories. He has won his last 3 starts, including an impressive duel with Tim Hudson, in which the rookie showed that he had the guts to win a big game. This is the Brewers lone chance to score a few runs, but if history tells us anything, the Phillies are likely to score a few more. Gallardo has been far from the ace that the Brewers thought would lead their staff. He has had moments of greatness (8 innings – 1earned run – 9 strikeouts vs the Dodgers) but he has gotten shelled nearly as often (most recently giving up 8 earned to the Cardinals in 4.2 innings). As a right handed pitcher, he may struggle against the powerful lefties in the middle of the Phillies order. However, good Gallardo typically comes out at Miller Park, where he is 9-2. I expect this game to be decided by the bullpens, both of which are solid.
Final Word: The Phillies don’t strikeout a lot (rank in the bottom five in total K’s) while the Brewers rely heavily on striking batters out (rank in the top 5 in strikeouts). Something has to give here, and the Phillies have won battles like this all year long
Soppe Score: The Phightin’ Phils take 3 out of 4 from the Beer Makers. The Brewers are built like the Phillies, with a few big bats and 3 very good pitchers, but to a lesser extent. This series, and the rosters as a whole, is a bad matchup for the Brewers, no matter how good they are at home.
Good analysis, Kyle … BUT I see an even split in the series. Pitching edge to the Phillies, home field magic for the Brewers.
Too bad we have to wait almost a month for the playoffs to start but this is a good preview.
unbLEEvable, I love it.
I realize Greinke isn’t pitching in this series, but the way these matchups line up just makes it hard to believe the Brewers stand much of a chance against the Phillies in the playoffs. You could easily say the same thing about Red Sox-Yankees, assuming the Sox starters are relatively healthy. But, that’s why they play the games.
Wally, i like the split call, but I pride myself on picking a winner. The Phillies are that talented, but Im still taking “the field” over them come playoff time.
The field is going down.
It’s fun to see you guys spar on this issue. I tend to agree with Chas when it comes to the playoffs …. the Phillies are an awfully talented AND experienced team in October with GREAT pitching and they’ll have home field advantage in the NL. I just can’t pick anyone else to beat them for the NL pennant. (But I will be rooting for the underdogs … would love to see Milwaukee finally get back to the WS)
Now with regard to Philly winning the WS, that’s a slightly different topic, but they can certainly stand toe to toe with anyone in the AL.
Im not saying the Phills aren’t the best team, and if it was a 1 month playoff series, id take them every time. Short playoff series, to many things can happen. Ive said it before, think the Braves will be toughh
CG from Cole Hamels. Any chance we could see 3 CGs in a row?
Let’s not forget, the Phils will get the D-Backs in the first round. Anything can happen, of course. Arizona could surprise everyone, but the main takeaway is the Phils will have to get through either the Brewers or Braves, but not both.
I agree that the World Series is a different story. Right now, I’d pick the Phils over the Red Sox, Yanks or anybody else, but currently I’m just taking them vs. the NL field not the MLB field.
I just realized Arizona is only a game and a half behind Milwaukee, so Philly could end up playing the Brewers in the first round, after all.
If thats the case, its an absolute mismatch. Brew Crew lucky to get the one game today
Kyle … kudos to you …. you nailed the prediction. I wonder if the Brewers are starting to turn back into pumpkins. Don’t want to take anything away from Philly though.
Any panic setting in yet within Red Sox Nation? Those Rays sure are getting close. Smitty? Casey ???
Coming from the guy who actually lives in Red Sox Nation (but isn’t a citizen), I think people are nervous and gradually working their way up the ladder to panicking, but aren’t quite there yet.
Thanks, the the update, Chas … you’re our “man on the ground over there in the war zone”. Make sure you take cover when the bullets start flyin’ 🙂
No panic. Merely acceptance. Remember when you said my claim of demise for the Sox was too early?
Casey, you’re just too sane to be a Red Sox fan.
🙂
I’ve tried insanity. It’s kinda frustrating. 🙂
Casey … just curious … why the Red Sox??? Why are they your team??? I just woulda thought the Orioles would be your guys given their several decades long affiliation with the Rochester Red Wings. Can you elaborate?
I have no explanation. Everyone in the house liked the Orioles. I didn’t. I just liked all the players if that makes sense. I also included the Mets as my favorite team for much of the 70s – loved the ’73 team. I was an Expos fan for a while – I spent summers with my grandma near the St. Lawrence river. We used to listen to Expos games in French. And when Joe Altobelli left Rochester to become the coach of the Giants, they became my favorite team.
I cheered for the Sox in ’75 and felt the pangs of defeat when Dent cleared the Green Monster. If I could feel pain, there must be a reason. The Sox became my team.
By the way – does there really have to be a reason?
“Everyone in the house liked the Orioles. I didn’t. I just liked all the players if that makes sense”. Well, no, it doesn’t make sense … but we’ll just live with it. Feelings aren’t necessarily in the realm of logic anyway. So … no … there doesn’t have to be a logical reason. There’s only a reason if you care to give one … or even understand it yourself. Note: this is not a criticism in any way, shape or form.
Funny how our favorites change through time and what the various influences are. Grandparents, location, personalities, what’s happening in your life, etc.
Thought about it a little more. At that time (things have since changed) I wasn’t a fan of Earl Weaver. So it came down to Earl Weaver or Louie Tiant and Yaz and Fred Lynn and Carlton Fisk and Dewey Evans and Rick Burleson and… you get the picture. Besides, the Orioles let Bobby Grich get away and Don Baylor. That was kinda like the Bruins letting Bobby Orr go. I cooled on the Sox for a couple of years when they let Fisk and Lynn get away. Came back around some time in the early 80s.
Now you’re making progress … you’ve come to grich … er, uh grips with it.