Diamondbacks @ Giants – Tale of the Tape

By Kyle Soppe

Plot: The NL West wasn’t supposed to be like this. The defending champion Giants would pitch their way to an easy playoff berth, and then rely on the pitching of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain to guide them to the promise land. The Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged as a team with youthful exuberance that is combining surprising pitching and timely hitting to contend for the division title. This division will only send 1 team to the playoffs, as the Braves hold a substantial lead in the race for the wild card. The Baby Backs lead the Giants by 6 games, and a series win here would give Arizona the inside track to their first playoff appearance in 4 years.

Setting: The Giants host this HUGE series, but that won’t intimidate the D-Backs, as they are the division’s best road team (36-33). Both teams will send their 3 top starting pitchers to the bump in this series, so no excuses in this one. Game 1 will see Matt Cain (10-9 2.87) take on Joe Saunders (9-11 3.82). Statistically speaking, Cain holds the advantage over Saunders in this matchup. But sometimes trends will buck the statistics, as the Giants tend to score very little in support of Cain, and the opposite is true for the Diamondbacks and Saunders. It doesn’t make sense, but we are 130 games into the season, so we can’t simply right it off. Arizona has put up over 6 runs per contest in which Saunders starts, ranking him in the top 50 of supported starters. On the other end of that spectrum is Cain, who receives just over 4 runs per game. Cain is the better pitcher, but one cannot assume he wins this matchup. Saunders pitches to contact, but the Giants aren’t the type of team to take advantage of that style. He was tremendously effective in his last start versus a weak hitting divisional opponent in San Diego (7 innings 4 hits 0 earned runs) and could find similar success against San Fran.

Aces are wild on Saturday as Tim Lincecum (12-11 2.58) tangles with Ian Kennedy (17-4 3.03). As the Giants top pitcher, The Freak has not disappointed and remains one of the game’s best. His record doesn’t reflect it, but Lincecum is the type of pitcher you want pitching with your playoff life on the line. He has recorded a quality start in 9 of his last 10 outings, and with a strong bullpen behind him, the Diamondbacks will be lucky to scratch across 3 runs in this one. This means that Kennedy, who has transitioned from nice starter to staff ace this year, will have to be almost flawless to give his team a shot. But he has been that good of late, piling up a 9-1 record over his last 10 starts. His ability to pitch late into games has been a big reason for his success, and he leads a pitching staff tied for the major league lead in wins. Both starters pitch over 6.5 innings per start, so expect this game to come down to the strong bullpens.

Brian Wilson is eligible to return from a DL stint for this series, and that could loom large in this low scoring high intensity games.

In Sunday’s finale, Ryan Vogelsong (10-5 2.63) takes on the second member of the Diamondbacks staff in Daniel Hudson (14-9 3.61). This is Vogelsong’s second stint as a starter, and he is making the most of it. He’s been effective all year, but even more so at the comforts of home. He is 6-4 with a 2.18 ERA at AT&T Park. Vogelsong gets a bit more run support than his staff mates, and has taken full advantage. Of the Giants starters, he has the least big-game experience, so his nerves need to be kept in check early if he wants to last into the late innings. Hudson has been hittable of late, giving up at least 7 hits in 6 of his last 8 starts. He is by far the most hittable pitcher in this series, as is indicative by his .265 batting average against on the year.

Final Word: The Diamondbacks strikeout more than 26 other ball clubs, and the Giants strikeout the second most batters in the league. The ability to get out of jams will be huge in this series, and the strikeout is a great way to end a team’s momentum.

Soppe Score: I’ll take the desperate defending champs to take all 3 games in this one. A veteran team that is playing for its life, I trust them to play well on the game’s biggest stage. Justin Upton is the best offensive talent in this series, that’s not debatable, but the Giants pitching staff won’t let him beat them. Neither team is going to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard, but the Giants win those kinds of games more often than not, and I trust their pitching over the mostly unproven staff in Arizona.