Red Sox @ Rangers – Tale of the Tape

By Kyle Soppe

Setting: Two of the better teams in the MLB face off in what could be a preview of the ALCS. This 4-game series could distance the Rangers from the second place Angels, who continue to hang around with their superior pitching. The Red Sox and Rangers are known for their big name bats (Ellsbury, Youkilis, Ortiz, Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, etc), and they have produced in a big way. They both rank in the top 3 in the MLB in team batting, runs scored, home runs, extra base hits, and OPS. The runs scored draw attention and grab headlines, but the depth of their pitching rotations will be what makes them tough to beat in October. The Red Sox have 3 pitchers with at least 10 wins (Lester, Lackey, and Beckett) while the Rangers have 5 (Ogando, Wilson, Holland, Lewis, Harrison). These pitchers eat up innings and keep the game close until their explosive offenses can put some runs on the board.

Plot: The newly acquired Erik Bedard (4-8 3.44) will face off with Ranger ace C.J. Wilson (12-5 3.20) in the series opener Monday night. Bedard is winless as a member of the Red Sox, but that isn’t indicative of how he is pitching. In 16 August innings, he has given up 6 earned runs and only 1 homer. Limiting the long ball will be crucial against Texas because the Rangers would rather hit the long ball than produce and manufacture runs. He is opposing Wilson, who has had great success versus the BoSox in his career. With a 1.69 ERA in 37.1 innings, he has stepped up when called on against the AL favorites. Wilson is coming off of 3 consecutive quality starts, all of which he stuck out at least 6 batters. He has embraced being the staff ace, and seems to want the ball in the big game.

Tuesday’s game will feature John Lackey (11-9 6.02) squaring off against Colby Lewis (11-8 3.83). Both pitchers have 11 wins, but as you can see from their ERA’s, have gotten there in very different fashions. Lackey has won 8 games in which he has surrendered at least 3 earned runs. He has given up 17 long balls on the year and gives up 1.55 base runners per inning. Lackey will need to be better in Arlington on Tuesday night, as the Rangers are too talented and too patient to not take advantage of Lackey’s smoke and mirrors routine. Lewis, on the other hand, has produced 2 of his better starts all season in the last 8 days. Over his last 13.1 innings, the righty has only given up 1 earned run in addition to striking out 15 batters. It would be asking a lot for him to limit the powerful Red Sox to that little production, but when pitching against Lackey, a quality start should be good enough for the W.

Wednesday is the first pitching matchup that appears friendly for the Sox on paper, when Josh Beckett (10-5 2.46) battles with Matt Harrison (10-8 3.28). Beckett strikes out 3.5 batters for every 1 he walks, which has been a key when he gets in a jam. When he struggles, it is with the home run. He has given up 8 homers over his past 6 starts, as compared to only 7 prior to that. If he can avoid the big mistake to the middle of this Rangers lineup, Beckett will give his Red Sox a chance to win this one. Harrison is a strong bottom end of the rotation option, as his 3.28 ERA would indicate. He has 16 quality starts, but is most effective when he finds a way to pitch at least 7 innings. Of his 10 wins this year, he has gone 7+ innings in 9 of them. The odds are stacked against him due to the patience of the Red Sox lineup. Ellsbury has been wreaking havoc at the top of the lineup, and Boston’s power hitters are the most selective in the league. Look for Harrison’s pitch count to swell a bit, and even if he is effective, I doubt he can make it past the 6^th.

In the series finale, knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (6-5 4.97) will make his fifth attempt at win number 200 against an outfielder turned reliever turned starter in Alexi Ogando (12-5 3.30). This game would appear to be Texas’s to lose, with Wakefield’s struggles combined with the hitting prowess of the Rangers. The 45-year-old righty has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 13 of his last 14 starts. The knuckleball can dance at times, but these Rangers figure to run into more than their fair share of them. Ogando is a lanky righty who took the league by storm earlier this season. Teams are starting to catch on a bit, but he is still an effective pitcher. WARNING. Left-handed hitters are hitting 50 points higher off Ogando than righties, and the Red Sox offer up primarily lefties in their all-star-laden lineup.

Final Number: 112. That’s the number of stolen bases for the Rangers, as well as the number of stolen bases given up by the Red Sox. For Texas, that is 5^th most in the league, and for Boston, that is the 2^nd most allowed in the league. The ability to turn singles/walks into scoring opportunities will be huge in this series, and provides the Rangers with an advantage.

Soppe Score: The Red Sox are the better team, but not by much. With Lester not being slated to pitch in this series, the Rangers get the slight edge. Their order is just as relentless as that of Boston, and the depth of their pitching works well in this 4-game set. Closer Neftali Feliz seems to have righted the ship in the 9^th inning, and is ready to close out this series. Rangers take 3 of 4 in this one, and take a strangle hold on the AL West.