By Kyle Soppe
Setting: Coming into the year, the Braves and the Giants had high expectations, and for the most part, they have lived up to them. Last season saw the Giants take 3 of 4 games from Atlanta in the NLDS, and both teams have sights at another October run. In the NL East the Braves trail the Phillies, not a huge surprise as the Phills were the NL favorite’s from day one, but they lead the wild card race by a comfortable 6 games. The defending NL champion Giants came out of the gates fast, but have been snake bitten lately, and now trail the upstart Diamondbacks by 2 games in the NL West. The Giants focus needs to be on catching Arizona, but proving themselves against a similarly built playoff team would do wonders for their confidence as we approach the final stretch. Zeros will likely fill up the scoreboard, as these teams boast a nice combination of young guns and effective vets on the mound.
Plot: The Braves will bookend this series with its senior members in Tim Hudson (12-7 3.18) and Derek Lowe (7-11 4.77). The 36year-old Hudson is as rock solid as they come. Coming into every season, he can be counted on for 200 innings, with a mid 3 ERA, and roughly 15 wins. The righty has never struck out more 181 batters in a season and has never been necessarily feared by hitters, but he finds ways to give his teams quality outings night in and night out. On April 23rd, before the addition of Carlos Beltran, Hudson went 8.2 innings against the Giants in a 5-2 victory. That start was indicative of what Hudson has done most of the year: he gave up 9 hits, but didn’t beat himself with walks, and came up with the right pitch whenever he needed it.
Tommy Hanson (11-7 3.60) will toe the rubber Tuesday night in Atlanta. Hanson has struggled of late as he has not lasted more than 6 innings in any of his past 5 starts, but has set a career high in wins this season and is capable of dominating. Hanson has given up 17 long balls thus far, a number that is concerning versus an offense that struggles to manufacture runs. As staff mate Hudson did, Hanson also dominated San Fran earlier this season. He fired 7 innings where he only surrendered 3 hits, striking out 7 in the process. The potential for greatness exists, and the downside seems limited as he has only given up more than 3 runs 4 times this year.
BREAKING NEWS .. Tommy Hanson was placed on the DL Sunday, and Randall Delgado will make the start on Tuesday. Delgado suffered a loss to the Rangers in his only career start, but has been on fire in the minors. His 13 scoreless innings are nice, but they won’t intimidate the Giants lineup.
On Wednesday, Jair Jurrjens (12-4 2.63) is expected to be activated off of the disabled list and make the start. A right knee strain has been the only thing to slow Jurrjens this year, especially in the comforts of home where he posts a 7-1 record in 10 starts. The overall stats are impressive, but just prior to being put on the DL, he struggled mightily with control. In his last 3 starts he has either found the heart of the plate (6 homers given up) or struggling to find any part of the zone (8 walks). A healthy Jurrjens would give the Giants fits, but if he isn’t 100%, the Braves bullpen may be called on heavily in this one.
Old man Lowe will conclude the series for the Bravos. In order to win this game, the Atlanta bats will need to heat up. Lowe has given up at least 3 runs in 9 of his last 11 starts, giving up 7 or more hits in 7 of those outings. As the Braves 5th starter, he will rely on the Giants to struggle at the dish as they have all year, ranking last in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position (.219).
Pitching is Atlanta’s strength, but it is an even bigger strength for San Francisco. The Giants are one of three major league teams to have a lower ERA than the Braves. The youngest on a staff full of 20 somethings, Madison Bumgarner (7-11 3.53), will begin this series for the Giants. It’s been a season filled with ups and downs for Bumgarner, who has 18 quality starts but had to wait until his 9th start of the season to get his first win. He either goes 6+ innings strong or gives his team a chance to win, or he implodes in less than 4 innings. One of those stinkers came against these Braves, as he lasted only 2.2 innings. Hudson won’t dominate, but give him a lead like that, and you’re in trouble.
The same can be said for Jonathan Sanchez (4-7 4.29) who hasn’t won since June 2nd. Sanchez will turn a manager’s hair grey quickly, as he throws as many pitches per inning as anybody in the majors. His strikeout numbers are high, 102 k’s in 98.2 innings, but a patient lineup can get to him. He has walked at least 4 batters in half of his starts, and professional teams will cash in on those opportunities. The Braves do tend to strikeout, 4th most in the league, so Sanchez has a success to put up impressive numbers if he can get ahead early in the counts.
The Giants will be looking to survive the first 2 games, because on games 3 and 4, they send out all star starters. Matt Cain (9-9 3.00) faces off with Jair Jurrjens in the series’ best pitching matchup. Cain’s win total, as it is for all Giant starters, is misleading. In 8 of his 9 loses, he has been given 2 or less runs of support. Opposing the ace of the Braves staff, Cain is going to have to be nearly perfect to earn a victory Wednesday night in Atlanta. An impressive 134:44 strikeout to walk ratio makes him hard to beat, not to mention he’s only given up 7 homers on the season. If the Braves want to get to him, manufacturing runs combined with opportune hitting is the way to do it. Cain will give the Giants a solid effort, but will the offense be up to the challenge?
Tim Lincecum (11-9 2.59), who my brother appropriately nicknamed the “baby faced assassin,” will wrap up the series on Thursday. No two ways about him, Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with the ability to go the distance every outing. A sub 3.00 career ERA to go along with at least 231 strikeouts in each of the past 3 seasons, we know what he is capable of. He has struck out at least 9 batters 7 times this year, and is undefeated in those games. The Braves did beat him back in April; behind a career high 6 walks from Tiny Tim. Control isn’t typically an issue for Linecum, and the Braves shouldn’t rely on the free passes to get their runs.
The pitching at the end of the game is just as strong as the starters. Brain Wilson (35 saves) and Craig Kimbrel (36) have been 2 of the best closers in the game this year. Johnny Venters is another stud in the Braves’ bullpen, providing a closer type in the 8th inning. Whether it’s Fear of the Beard in San Fran or the terrifying two headed monster in Atlanta, these games are likely to be decided before the start of the 8th innings.
Final Word: The Giants simply don’t put enough people on base to routinely contend with pitching rich teams. After Jeff Keppinger homered on Saturday night, the Giants last 21 long balls have been with no one on base! The streak was broken Sunday, but that’s still a crazy streak, and as a team that struggles to produce runs, home runs need to drive in runs.
Soppe Score: My view on this series may not be in the majority, but I believe the Braves top to bottom, have what it takes to win big games, and that’s what this is. Dan Uggla is absolutely smoking hot and with Brian McCann back in the middle of the lineup, I think the Bravos have enough offense to get by the Giants. Delgado is in a tough spot, but if there is an offense comparable to a AAA team, it’s the Giants. Besides, if they are going to win the NL like some writer predicted, they might as well get it started this week. Braves take 3 of 4, and I hope they don’t need to beat Lincecum on Thursday.
Interesting how the Giants continue to give Cain very little run support. Didn’t Cain “lead” the league in lack of run support last year?
A common misconception. While Cain does get very low run support (5.36 runs per game), it isnt as bad as it gets. The perception that the Giants get blanked every time he takes the mound has lead to him being a bit overrated. Sure, some of these runs come late in the game, where Cain’s night is over, but pitching later into games would help that. Last year, these are some bigger names that received less run support per start … Cole Hamels, Doc Halladay, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Roy Oswalt, Johan Santana,and the pitcher i feel the worst for King Felix Hernandez, who received only 3.75 runs of support per game.
To be fair to Cain, the Giants offense has been even worse to him this year (4.15 runs per start). That total is the 4th lowest of qualifying starting pitcher, but Cy Young candidate is one of them. The recent streak for Cain, however, is ridiculous. Over his last 5 starts, the Giants have given him all of 8 runs. Lot of pressure to be perfect for Cain,
Until this weekend, the Giants seemed to be slumping quite badly ever since they acquired Carlos Beltran. Is it merely a coincidence? What has Beltran done offensively as a Giant thus far? Wonder who’s AB’s he’s taking away by being in the line up.
That stat on SF’s consecutive solo HRs is unreal. Wonder what the record is?
On run support, the numbers can be a little deceiving if you don’t dig into the details. (Not that i have them). But the true story lays in how many starts the pitcher in question gets 3 runs or less of support. A pure “runs per game” number can be deceptively thrown off by abberrations … like every 5th game Cain pitches, the Giants score 16 runs while only scoring 2 in the other 4 games. Just an example. Kyle … it looks like you’ve hinted at that in the main part of your post.
Wally, the Giants set a record for consecutive solo shots with their 21. And i get the aberration argument, and it’s valid. But San Fran has only had 2 big outputs with Cain on the bump. They scored 10 and 8, and have balanced that out with their share of 0-2 runs. But of his 25 starts, they have scored between 3-6 runs 11 times. Theoretically, top level pitchers have a sub 3 era and pitch late into games. With a very solid bullpen, an elite pitcher in his position probably wins 8 or so of those games. Cain has only won of 5 of them. By contrast, Weaver has won 11 of 14 such starts. That’s the difference between an ace and a nice pitcher
Matt Cain may not quite be an elite pitcher (although at 26, there’s still a chance he could be), but his ability to pitch deep into games is not the reason. He’s thrown 217 or more innings three straight seasons, and his 165 IP this year is only 10 behind league leader Roy Halladay.
That came off a little wrong. Yes, he throws a lot of innings. I would like to see him complete what he starts more often. 6 or 7 innings is great, but the best pitchers fire complete games, making sure they give their team the best chance to win. Only 1 CG despite the high innings count
But then you have managers whose brains are somehow controlled by Brian Wilson’s beard. (That dang thing is everywhere). They remove starters from games before they should. That’s why Cain hasn’t thrown more CGs.
I don’t know enough about the Giants to know if Wally’s right, but Cain, Lincecum and Vogelsong each have one CG this year, and that’s it for the entire staff.
Maybe the reason there’s so few SFG complete games is because they don’t score many runs to begin with and therefore the games are ALWAYS real close in the late innings. If they’re winning and it’s real close, most managers are gonna employ their bullpen/closer. If losing and it’s real close, NL managers are gonna pinch hit for their pitcher. Either way, it spells fewer CGs in the NL and especially for a low-scoring team like SFG. There … a complete explanation 🙂
I’ve voiced this before mostly after observing Ozzie Guillen make the same mistake time after time after time … I think managers generally go to their bullpen too quickly these days. I don’t understand why you take out a pitcher who’s pitching well just because it’s the 8 inning or because he just hit 100 pitches … whatever. Why bring in someone cold who you’re not sure is having a “good day” and take out someone warm who’s produced results within the last 15 mins???? Doesn’t make sense. Some of them never learn.
Interesting argument on the low scoring NL teams. Makes sense, but it isnt really back by the numbers. The Dodgers and Pirates rank in the bottom 5 in runs scored, but toward the upper middle of the pack when it comes to complete game count …
im 100% with Wally, too many managers goin to the pen early. If i manage a team, I want my ace on the hill til he tells me he is done. If I am going to lose, I want it to be with my best arm in control of the ball
I wouldn’t be so sure that the manager makes the decision about pitchers on his own. You have a lot of people – bench coach, pitching coach, GM and maybe even scouts who have input as to how long a guy goes. Organizations make a commitment as to how they want to approach games and the season with their staff.
I’ll go one step further than Casey and say that I wouldn’t trust my ace to tell me when he is done. I would expect the competitor in him to say he is not done – when in fact he is done.
Managers have a fine line of deciding between the success of the team and the long term health of a organization’s investments.
Just ask Dusty Baker and look what he did to that Cubs rotation.
game 1 to the ATL. wasnt pretty, but ill take it
Great points by both Casey (organizations being involved in pitcher workload decisions) and Smitty (never trust an ace to tell you he’s done).
Smitty, I’ll see your Dusty Baker/Cubs example and raise you a Billy Martin/A’s example. 🙂
Chas – haha – you beat me to the punch with the reference to Billy Martin and the A’s.
i dont care the reason, Braves up 2-0 🙂
Kyle – Like you mentioned, hits were hard to come by last night. 2-1 in 11 innings? Sounds like October.
How bout them Braves! that’s 3 outta 4, and they are ready for October. Look out NL
Agree … Braves will be very tough, Kyle. If their pitching continues to do quite well, anything is possible. Giants proved that last year.
I’ll take the Phillies vs. the field and give 2-1 odds.
strong words Chas … i dont doubt that the Phills are the class of the NL, but that doesn’t guarantee much. It wouldn’t surprise in the least if they won the NL, but i would take the field in that bet
I don’t think it’s really that bold a prediction. I’m curious what the Vegas odds are going to be. When one team has a .650 winning percentage, I’m sure they’ll be overwhelming favorites to win two postseason series and advance to the World Series.
Anyway, the Brewers and Braves are looking tough too. I just don’t think they’re going to beat the Phillies. But, since we don’t want to venture down the gambling road, we’ll make the stakes that you can brag twice as much if the Phillies don’t win than I can if they do. 🙂
I gotta side with Chas … the Phillies should win the NL pennant, not that I’ll be rooting for them. I think homefield advantage will be important. That’s where the Brewers may fail if they have to go to Philly for 4 of 7. Phils have better pitching than MIL anyway. Braves vs Phillies would be quite interesting … but I gotta give the edge to Philly in the end.
Hahaha. thats a deal Chas