By Kyle Soppe
Setting: The Milwaukee Brewers will host the first of 12 meetings with the Cardinals in the next five weeks. Miller Park has been as friendly to the home team as any park in the majors, as they lead the league in home winning percentage (39-14). The division rivals are atop the NL Central, a four-team race that will likely reward only the winner with a playoff spot. The Brewers’ pitching has been on a roll of late, and is largely responsible for their six-game win streak that has stretched their division lead to 2.5 games. These two teams have only met 6 times this season, with the BrewCrew taking four of them. Their latest meeting was June 10-12, with the Brewers earning a three-game sweep.
As the past week saw moves aplenty across the MLB, the Brewers decided to sit tight with their current roster, while the Cardinals were aggressive. Trading away Colby Rasmus and acquiring starting pitcher Edwin Jackson and shortstop Rafael Furcal, the Cards are trying to win now.
Plot: The pitching staffs in this series match up very evenly, as both teams send their ace to the hill in game 1. Zach Grienke (8-4 4.50) came over in an off-season trade and has underwhelmed thus far. At times dominant, the 2009 CY Young award winner has been very inconsistent in his inaugural NL season. The flashes of brilliance, however, have left Brewers fans wanting more. Grienke has struck out 123 batters in only 94 innings of work, registering at least 7 K’s in 8 of his last 9 starts. Included in that stretch was a seven-inning-nine-strikeout victory versus these Cardinals on June 11th. Something has to give when he battles the Redbirds offense, as only two teams have struck out less this year.
On Tuesday, Shaun Marcum (10-3 3.33) will get his second look at Saint Louis. He defeated them back on June 12th with seven quality innings. Similar to Grienke, Marcum has relied a bit on the punch out to get himself out of trouble. With 114 strikeouts in 129.2 innings pitched, Marcum is capable of getting out of the jams he sometimes puts himself in. He has been hot of late, earning victories in his past three starts, while posting a 3.00 ERA during that span. His 10 wins rank second on Milwaukee’s staff, but that is a bit deceiving. The Brewers rarely offer Marcum much support, as in 13 of his last 14 starts, they have scored four runs or fewer.
In the series finale, 13-year old veteran Randy Wolf (7-8 3.44) will face Albert Pujols and company. Wolf has been struggling of late, losing four of his last five decisions. Walks have played a big part in that, and Wolf doesn’t strikeout batters at a high rate, thus making the walks even more damaging. In July, he walked three batters for every four he struck out, by far the worst ratio of pitchers in this series. Pitching mostly to contact, Wolf must have his control if he wants to last and give his team a chance to win on Wednesday.
Chris Carpenter (6-7 3.68) will oppose Grienke in the series opener tonight. After a slow start, Carpenter is beginning to earn the title of staff ace. LaRussa can count on his starter eating up innings if nothing else, as he has gone at least six innings in all but two of his starts this season. Lately, however, those have been quality innings, resulting in his last 5 decisions being wins. He seems to have turned the corner after losing his previous five decisions.
The Cardinals catch a break, as Cardinal killing 2B Rickie Weeks will be unavailable for the series. Jamie Garcia (10-5 3.14) will take the ball Tuesday Night at Miller Park. The most consistent Cardinal starter this year, the 25-year-old lefty has 13 quality starts on the season and leads the rotation in k/9. As unexplainable as the Brewers lack of run support behind Wolf, is the Cardinals struggles in the field with Garcia on the mound. Garcia leads the league with 14 unearned runs on the year, and giving a powerful lineup that features Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder more than three outs will almost certainly lead to a loss.
Former White Sox starter, Edwin Jackson (8-7 3.78) will pitch the pivotal game three. The new acquisition pitched a gem in his debut versus the Cubs on Friday night, cruising through seven innings while allowing only one run. Shifting to the NL is usually a recipe for success for pitchers, and Jackson hopes to continue that line of thought. The righty has won three straight starts and has thrown at least 6 innings in his last 10 appearances. With three pitchers that go deep into ball games, the Cardinals hope to have a well rested bullpen should they need it.
Final Word: The Cardinals are third in the league in team batting average, a good omen if they can avoid striking out in bunches. It will be strength against strength when the strikeout pitchers of Milwaukee face the contact hitters from Saint Louis, and that will determine the outcome of this series.
Soppe Score: Fresh off the correct pick of a Phillies sweep in the battle of Pennsylvania, I will take the Cardinals to win two out of three, and trim their deficit to 1.5 games in the NL Central. I like the way the Cards match up against Wolf in the finale, and figure they split the first two. It will be interesting to see if John Jay can show his value in replacing Rasmus, and if newcomers Furcal and Jackson can make their presence felt.
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