By Kyle Soppe
Setting: A meeting of two Pennsylvania-based teams battling for playoff position, and no, this isn’t a football preview. The Phillies, who own the top home and overall record in the MLB, were expected to be here the second Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt brought their talents to Philly. The Bucco’s, who boast the third best winning percentage on the road in the NL, have been the feel good story of 2011. With 18 straight losing seasons, the Pirates are in the thick of the NL Central race, part of a three-team race where all the teams are within a game and a half of one another. The Phillies are the unquestioned kings of the NL, and the Pirates can prove that they belong with a series win against their state mate.
Plot: During the first week of June, these two teams met up in Pittsburgh for a 3 game set. The Pirates won 2, but didn’t manage much off of the “big 4” of the Phillies. Their pitching saved them in a game one duel with Cole Hamels, and they eventually beat the Phillies’ bullpen. Their other win was against Kyle Kendrick, the weak link of this staff. To conclude the series, Doc Halladay dominated and was able to avoid the sweep. They won’t be as lucky this time around as the Phillies are expected to start Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Vance Worley for this Friday-Sunday series. Halladay (12-4 2.55 ERA) has been the ace we’ve all come to expect, posting an eye popping 147:19 strikeout to walk ratio. As the best pitcher in all of baseball today, he continually eats up innings and always puts his team in a great position to leave with a win. Cliff Lee dominated June, but has limped through July (0-2 4.97). However, Lee has been in Cy Young form at Citizen’s Bank all year long (7-2 2.05). Vance Worley 7-1 2.02) actually leads the Phillies in ERA and has been even better in the comforts of his home park (4-0 1.62). The Phillies offer exceptional depth with their pitching staff, making it hard to forecast a repeat of the series in early June.
Opposing Halladay on Friday will be 27-year old Charlie Morton (8-5 3.69). Morton has already set career highs in IP, wins, CG, and strikeouts but tends to battle and grind through his starts, a risky proposition against the opportunistic Phillies. He often works in and out of trouble (1.50 WHIP), and that has haunted him at various points throughout the season. He beat Philly on June 4th with 7 strong innings and is capable of keeping it close again if he can limit the number of leadoff base runners.
On Saturday, we will see budding star James McDonald take the bump. McDonald’s season numbers (7-4 3.95) don’t tell the story of late. Ever since he lost to these Phillies on June 5th, the 26-year old lefty has gone 4-0 with 4 of those 8 starts being considered quality. Over that span, the strikeouts have increased, and the bullpen has been phenomenal. Staff ace Jeff Karstens (8-5 2.41) gets the call in the final game. In the midst of a career year, Karstens has been rock solid of late. He shut down the Phillies on June 3rd, holding them to only 4 hits and 1 run. He is 5-1 in his last 9 starts, and everyone of those starts lasted at least 6.2 innings. He’s not flashy and won’t light up the radar gun, but if the Bucco’s have a pitching advantage, this is it.
Final Word: The Phillies lead the league with a 1.18 team WHIP and the Pirates rank 23rd in the league with a .311 OPS. The Pirates aren’t a power-oriented team, and without many long balls, scoring chances will be far and few between this weekend.
Soppe Score: My buddy from Pennsylvania and devoted Pirates fan Pat Stoner posed this question: “It’s July, and we are still winning. Is it time to get excited yet?” I believe this is the series that could determine that. If the Pirates pull off a series win, it would be impossible to not consider them a legit playoff contender. Having said that, give me the Phillies in a 3-game sweep. The experience and overall talent is hard to bet against, as we are used to them winning these big games. The Pirates didn’t play well late last week against the Cardinals, which was the first of many series that will affect the playoff chase. They have made great strides this year, but remain a year or two away from challenging the elite teams. To much pitching for the Phightin’ Phils not to rebound from that series in June.
Kyle …. With the aquisition of Carlos Beltran, we need to consider that the “Kings of the NL” might indeed now be the SF Giants. They did, afterall, win the World Series last year and they just took 2 of 3 from the Phillies in Philly. Just sayin’ 🙂
Anyway … GO PIRATES! I would love to see them win the Central.
Wally, how come you didn’t take exception with this statement (not in reference to Justin Verlander): “As the best pitcher in all of baseball today, he continually eats up innings and always puts his team in a great position to leave with a win.”? 😉
Wally … it is a valid point to consider the Giants a threat in the NL, but it is still the Phillies playground. And the addition of Pence is a huge one. That said, I am not jumping off the Braves bandwagon to come out of the NL this year, not yet any way
Chas … I must’ve missed it the first time, but I’m hopping mad right now!! jk 🙂
Actually, ya just can’t argue against Halladay being one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is.
Kyle —
Pence is a really good, solid player with a great attitude & work ethic. Astros fans are sorry to see him leave town. HOPEFULLY, the prospects received from Philly in the deal will ALL pan out and have long careers in Houston.
Certainly, the aquisition of Pence is good for Philly right now and “narrows the already slim gap vs SF” 🙂
Verlander is at it again, Chas. No hitter thru 7 innings in a matchup with Weaver. Gotta love it. Did I mention he reminds me of Nolan Ryan …. ?
🙂
No body doubts that Verlander is good, but Nolan Ryan territory??
Underrated move .. Bourn to the Braves. If he can be the threat hes been in front of Heyward, they could be trouble. sticking with them to win the NL 🙂
PS . finally got the Soppe Score right .. stay tuned for next weeks
Kyle —
Bourn is a darned good player … offense and defense. Quality move … he will help ATL.
You missed a long conversation that was held on the Pine about a month ago … I think it was just before you came on the scene. I wrote a post about Verlander and his resemblance to Nolan Ryan, both physically and stuff-wise. Then we got into a long debate about who is the best MLB pitcher this season.
Anyway, one could argue that Verlander is better than Ryan “at this stage in his career”. He’s got much more command at a younger age. Like Ryan in his prime, Verlander is throwing near 100mph and has that great 12-6 curveball. A threat to throw a no-hitter almost every time out.
ill argee that statistically he may be on a similar path, but hes not the one of a kind talent like Ryan was. In what has been considered the “post steriod era”, Verlander is succeeding, no question, but he hasn’t dominated an era like Ryan did. Ryan was impressive because he was striking out batters and throwing no hitters at an insane rate at the time. Verlander, while compiling equally impressive numbers, is not as far ahead of his peers, and thus, not the polarizing figure that The Ryan Express was.
It is a similar argument that can be applied to home run totals. Sure, Sosa was the first to hit 60 homers in three different seasons, but is any one calling him a better hitter than Hank Aaron? Hard to compare stats across generations, as the game is constantly changes. Verlander is a great pitcher, but back in Ryan’s day, there was no argument over the game’s top pitcher. As for today, I would be willing to predict that less that half of avid baseball fans would consider Verlander as the games best. He’s a true ace and capable of dominance, but there simply isn’t the distance between him and the field that there was when Ryan pitched in the 1970s and 80s.
Kyle …. hold on there. Are you really saying that Nolan Ryan was the best pitcher of his era? Admittedly, his era was quite extended given the length of this career, actually more like two eras. BUT, Ryan didn’t win a single Cy Young award. I think you’d have to win at least a couple Cy Youngs to be in the discussion of best pitcher for an era. Now as a physical talent, Ryan had few if any peers, BUT it took him several years to harness that talent and convert himself from a thrower into a pitcher. For the first 8-10 years of his career, he had control problems. Sure he struck out a boat load of batters, but he walked quite a few as well and his ERA suffered because of it. Ryan may have distanced himself from his peers in terms of velocity, but in terms of performance, he was not what I’d call an elite pitcher. Over his first 10 seasons, his best ERA was 2.28 and second best 2.77. His best WHIP over that period was 1.14. It really wasn’t until he cut down on the walks and threw his cureveball for strikes that he really turned into a very good, if not dominant pitcher.
And realize I’m not saying Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball … BUT he’s awfully good. Again, he reminds me of Ryan because no other starter that I can think of brings the heat at 100 mph late in ballgames and has command of a great curveball at the same time. When I look at Verlander now, I see Ryan in his prime … during his Astros years and then starting with the Rangers. Verlander seems capable of a potential no-hitter when he takes the mound, just like Ryan. He’s got two no-no’s and today was the second time this season he lost one in the 8th inning. There are half a dozen other excellent pitchers in baseball right now, but none make me want to watch their games as much as Verlander.
Wally, your points are valid. I think awards like MVPs and Cy Youngs can be a bit overrated, but you’re right, you should have least one of them. Longevity is what sets Ryan apart, and that’s not Verlander’s fault. He just has to continue dominating for me to be willing to clump him in that tier of pitcher.
As far as young flamethrowers who i love to watch … a healthy Josh Johnson can go toe to toe with Verlander. I realize the health concerns are tremendous, but for one game, assuming health, i think that could be a toss up.
Verlanders 2008 is a season that sticks out in my mind. That just seems like something that wouldn’t happen to Nolan Ryan. Steriod Era or not, thats a rough season
Kyle, I definitely agree with one point I think you were making about how unique Nolan Ryan was. He was throwing consistently in the high 90s and at times around 100 mph during eras when the average major league fastball was “only” 87 or 88 mph. Now the average MLB fastball is in the low 90s … maybe 92 or so, not sure. Pitchers have evolved to generally throw harder … starters and relievers both. But Verlander is also very unique as a starter who probably throws harder late in games than he does in the early innings. Yesterday in the 7th and 8th innings, a handful of his pitches topped 100 mph. You just don’t see that from a starter. That alone doesn’t make him a “great pitcher”, but it does cause comparisons with the Ryan Express.
I for one don’t think Cy Youngs are “overrated”. To win one, you have to have a GREAT season and it’s not nearly the political crap we often see with, for instance, the NBA’s MVP award. It’s possible that wins have been overvalued in the equation in the past, but I think they’re starting to focus more on ERA, WHIP, etc.
OK, now i am on board. At first i thought you were proclaiming greatness, which i believe would be a bit premature. Wins have always been overrated and always will be. As far as I am concerned, they shouldn’t even really count. Wang for the Yanks won a lot of games, does that make him good? Of course not. I guess the disagreement comes to this .. i believe Verlander will be an ace for years to come, but never cross into the tier of greatness that Ryan is considered to be in. Not to take anything away from Verlander, hes great and will win at least 1 Cy Young, but he won’t leave the legacy that Ryan did.
One more point to my Josh Johnson comparision. Nolan Ryan, Josh Johnson, and your truly, all share a birthday, connections that run that deep simply cannot be overlooked. haha
Aha! You came clean with your bias. Now we know the rest of the story 😉