By Kyle Soppe
Setting: With the Red Sox the top dog in the daunting AL East, these 2 squads seem destined to battle for a wild card spot. I realize the BoSox are far from a lock to win the division, but either way, Tampa and New York are part of a 3 teams for 2 spots situation. Currently, the Yanks trail Boston by 1.5 games, while the Rays are7 games back. The battle in St. Petersburg will began tonight as ESPNs featured game and conclude on Thursday. In 5 contests this year, the Bronx Bombers have won 3 times, but they split the 2 games played at Tropicana Field back in mid May. The race for the playoff spot is clearly a marathon, and will not single handedly be decided here, but with the Rays teetering on the line of seller/buyer come the July 31st trade deadline, this series could very well determine the path they take come September.
Plot: Fresh off a disappointing 16 inning loss on Johnny Damon bobble head day, the Rays will trust rookie pitcher Alex Cobb with the ball in game 1 of this series. The 23 year old righty debuted on May 1st, and has steadily improved over the past 2 months. Serving as a fill in for injured starter Wade Davis, Cobb struggled with control early, but has compiled 3 strikeouts per walk over his last 3 starts.
The Yankees lineup is a patient one, and age old rule will apply for Cobb: location, location, location. Jeremy Hellickson, another promising 23 year old, will get his chance to tame the Yankee bats on Tuesday. The righty always gives his Rays a chance to win, averaging over 6 innings pitched per game. And although he has lost 4 of 5 starts over the last month, his statistics tell a different story. Boasting an impressive 3.21 era and 2 strikeouts for every walk, Hellickson figures to be a part of the Rays future, but is a part of the present as well.
If the Rays can split the first 2 games, they will be where they want to be, as they hand the ball to their 2 aces on Wednesday and Thursday. David Price and “Big Game” James Shields bring their talents to the mound to wrap up this divisional series. Price is a lanky lefty that highlights the youth movement in Tampa. Struggling in July, Price still has a season WHIP of 1.08 and nearly a strikeout per inning. He did give up #3,000 to Jeter, and figures to be pitching with a bit of a chip on his shoulder WARNING … he has been a bit homer-prone lately, giving up 5 in his last 3 starts, including 3 vs. Boston on Friday.
The Yankees, even minus A-rod, have the power to take full advantage of any mistakes. Shields pitches the finale, looking to continue his career year. As the senior member of this staff (29 years old), he has lead by example, as his 2.60 era would suggest. He only has 8 wins, but his 7 complete games are a more compelling number, 3 of which are shutouts. On average, Shields gets 23 outs per start, which could be huge as the Rays bullpen figures to be beaten up after playing 3 games vs the BoSox and these 4 vs. the Yanks.
The Yankees struggled out of the break, dropping their first 2 games across the border in Toronto. They righted the ship, courtesy of stud CC Sabathia, on Sunday with a 4-1 win. They open this series with the wildly inconsistent AJ Burnett. An inspiring start to his season has inflated his season numbers a bit, so say we subtract that. A 4-7 record with a mid 4 era and ill-timed walks; he’s simply a bottom of the rotation guy these days. Strikeouts are sexy and grab headlines, so Burnett tends to be a bit overrated by the general public. His July 4th start vs. Cleveland summed up his season. He struck out 4 batters in an inning, the headline to too many articles, as that doesn’t happen often. But that’s what happens when nobody knows where the ball is going. He gave up 4 runs in that inning and took the loss.
Bartolo Colon opposes Hellickson Tuesday night. Colon figures to be well rested after an abbreviated outing prior to the ASB. The 2005 Cy Young winner has had command issues since returning from the DL, and he no longer has the pitches to make up for the lack of control. Although he should benefit from the rest, the small ball approach of Joe Maddon could wear down the big righty.
Wednesday’s pitching matchup, on paper, is the biggest mismatch of the series. Opposing All Star Price, Freddy Sanchez needs to be at his best to keep pace with the donuts that seem to dominate scoreboards in games started by Price. Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise thus far, with a 3.43 era. But dig a little deeper, and that number seems poised to balloon. He gives up a hit per inning and has allowed opponents to bat .263. In a lineup that showcases great young players (Longoria, Upton, etc.) to go with veterans like Johnny Damon, Sanchez figures to struggle.
If the Rays can force the Yanks bullpen to enter the game early, that will apply even more pressure to CC Sabathia on Thursday. New York’s Cy Young candidate seems to deliver a big outing at every big moment. The league leader in wins, Sabathia is the definition of a top line starter. Pitch deep into games. Check. Pitch efficiently. Check. And most importantly, win games. Check. He has won his last 7 starts and will battle night in and night out. The stats are impressive (2.64 era, roughly 7.5 k/9, only 5 HRs allowed) but the mentality he brings to the ballpark can’t be measured. It’s as if he won’t let his team lose, and everybody buys in.
Final Word: The magic number or the Rays is 4. When scoring 4 or less runs, the Rays are 17-37, a trend that continued in last night’s marathon vs Boston. Meaning when they score more than 4 runs, 33-6
Soppe Score: In this column, I refuse to pick series splits. With that said, I’ll take the Rays to protect their house and take 3 out of the 4 games. I think the Yankees are a more talented team over the long haul, but with these pitching matchups, I like Tampa. The storyline will be the Rays pitchers against the powerful Yankee bats, as those are the teams’ strengths. However, it will be the Rays ability to take advantage of the weak and inconsistent pitching of the Yankees that will win them this series and narrow the gap in the race for the AL wild card.
Excellent analysis again, Kyle. Keep up the great work.
I have more of a financial proposal to MLB that I think would be a win-win-win … depending on how many stakeholder groups you look at. Here it is: Eliminate MLB in both Tampa and south Florida/Miami. Take the Rays and merge them with the Marlins, creating one team … an American League team. Locate that AL team in ORLANDO, which is the real economic hub of Florida, right? We can call it the Orlando Mickeys, the Mouseketeers, the Florida Fantasia’s … whatever. Build a RETRACTABLE DOME stadium with NATURAL GRASS … ala Safeco, Minute Maid, etc.
The result: a very good, very competitive team that will have REAL attendance and REAL revenue streams … a product that will have inherent advantages and lasting power. They will, for once, be able to compete for free agents and retain their talent. EVERYONE wins …. owners, players and THE FANS!
Whadya think, Pinesters???
Nice write-up, Kyle.
Regarding AJ Burnett, while I don’t disagree that’s he’s always been an enigma, believe it or not, he’s actually been quite consistent this year. First of all, while he got off to a 4-1 start, his ERA still sat at 3.93. 4 wins and 6 losses later, it’s up to 4.15, not really that big of a jump. In 17 of his 19 starts this year, he’s pitched 5 or more innings and given up 4 or fewer earned runs. So, what he’s been is consistently mediocre, but what he has done is keep the Yankees in games. He’s only had two rough outings, although those were against Boston and Tampa Bay.
Also, I don’t really think he’s over-rated. I think most folks know pretty much what he is: a guy with pretty electric stuff who’s mostly been an underachiever. That said, I’ll take him over Freddy Garcia (not Sanchez, by the way).
One more thing…can we stop calling James Shields by that ridiculous nickname that he never earned in the first place? In 29 1/3 postseason innings, he’s allowed 32 hits and 4 home runs. His ERA is a solid 3.68, but we’re hardly talking about Cliff Lee or Curt Schilling here.
Wally, if your idea is implemented there will be an odd number of teams in the majors.
When i used the term “overrated” referring to Burnett, I was more targeting his status as a household name. Everybody knows of him, and that shouldn’t be the case for an average pitcher. But he pitches in NY, so we know him. The general public is blind to many good starters in Toronto (Romero), Oakland (Gonzalez), San Fran (Vogelsong), etc. In the baseball community, Burnett may be accurately viewed as a run of the mill starter, but the casual baseball fan knows his name, more than he deserves based on his lack of success.
As for the nickname of Shields, I just like the ring of it. haha. You have a valid point, and his numbers back you. A 3-10 mark vs the Yankees, and those are always “big games”. Maybe its the fact that the Rays hand him the ball in those pressure games, not that he necessarily performs well in them. With respect to his 7 CGs this season, how does “All the Way” James Shields sound?
Wally, i like the idea. To solve the problem that Chas pointed out, lets combine LA teams too. The Dodgers are falling apart, and combing with the Angels would once again give us an even number of teams. Not to mention sparing us the embarrassment that has come with that whole situation.
Worst name for a pitcher? Could it be Sergio Mitre (pronounced “meat tray”)?
Oh … and to even things out, send the DisAstros down to AAA where they belong.
I stand corrected on AJ Burnett. I should have said his results are consistent, but how he achieves said results is far from it.
Case in point: Last night, he was awful in the first two innings, allowing four runs (three earned, although the unearned run was due to his own error) on five hits and three walks. After throwing 50 pitches in those two innings, it looked like he was in jeopardy of not making it through at least five innings for the first time this year.
His final line: 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER. So, the results are consistently mediocre, but he’s definitely still inconsistent. And that’s probably why some people still consider him a pitcher capable of being a top-of-the-rotation starter. But, AL East fans know better.
Wally I like the idea, Its better than the status quo.
If I may take a minute and ask this question:
“Why does nobody watch baseball in Florida?”
But I digress….
If that Orlando team is in the AL East, they might challenge the Red Sox and Yankees. That is, until they can’t afford to pay the players anymore.
C – John Buck
1B – Gaby Sanchez
2B – Ben Zobrist
SS – Hanley Ramirez
3B – Evan Longoria
LF – Matt Joyce
CF – B.J. Upton
RF – Mike Stanton
DH – Logan Morrison
UT – Emilio Bonifacio
SP – David Price, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Anibal Sanchez, Jeremy Hellickson
Bullpen would still need some upgrades, but this would be a nice team.
I am taking the batting of the AL East teams over your Orlando squad. However, that pitching would be tough to compete against. But my question for you Chas is, how do you afford this team? By combining all of the interest in Tampa and Florida, you may not fill the cheap seats in NY. This team would need to move, maybe to the East Coast where baseball seems to flurry. Not to mention playing in the AL East, this would limit travel. We are moving our fictitious roster to Bristol, Connecticut .. As the home of Sportscenter, they cant possibly suffer from under coverage, and will draw the fans needed to fund this team. The Highlighters will contend as they decide to go to a 4 man rotation and move Sanchez and Hellickson to long relief in front of Nunez and Farnsworth.
With the trade deadline approaching I see Cashman sitting on his hands with his thumb in a vertical position. WE NEED A STARTER!
hate to say it, but James Shields resembled a big game pitcher last night, and earned his Rays a big time split …
He’s a good pitcher, so he’s going to pitch his share of good games. He still hasn’t earned that nickname, though. 😉
Reported by Buster Olney on Twitter:
The Yankees called the Rays about James Shields and were told he is not available — presumably to NYY, and BOS.