By Kyle Soppe
Setting: These 2 AL Central rivals meet up in Detroit, starting on Friday, for a 3-game series to start the second half of the 2011 MLB season. The Tigers (49-43) currently lead the division over the upstart Indians (.5 games back), followed by these White Sox (5 games back). They have met 6 times this year, with the Tigers taking 5 of them, including a 3-game sweep back in April when the teams last played in Detroit.
Plot: In a division that is routinely up in the air come September, every series is crucial. Playoff spots are limited in the AL, and it seems likely that the AL Central will only have its winner advance to postseason play. The Tigers have posted an above average record (27-19) at home, while the Sox have actually had more success on the road than US Cellular in Chicago. All Star Justin Verlander will be given the ball on Friday, giving the Tigers a tremendous edge out of the gates. The flame throwing righty has delivered everything you expect from an ace: a microscopic 2.15 era, 12 victories, and a near 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Another interesting stat that speaks to the confidence of Verlander is that he is yet to issue an intentional walk. He is willing to challenge any batter in any situation, believing that his best pitch can get anybody out. Surprisingly enough, it is not the Tiger pitching that has been its strong suit (other than Verlander). As a team, they rank in the bottom 5 in team era at 4.27. On the flip side, their team batting average sits at .264, which is good enough for 5th in all of baseball. They are paced by stud first baseball Miguel Cabrera and the 2 headed catching monster of Alex Avila and Victor Martinez. Brandon Boesch is another name to watch, as the left fielder has hammered 12 homers in limited action. After Verlander starts on Frday, The Tigers will go with youth followed by experience when it comes to pitching. Max Scherzer, who has been a bit inconsistent this season, will bring his deceiving 10-4 record to Comerica on Saturday. Brad Penny, a contact pitcher who may be in trouble against the free swinging the Southsiders from Chicago.
The White Sox are a team that traditionally relies on swinging hard and hoping they make enough contact to score some runs. Their pitching staff lacks the big names, but the numbers don’t lie, they have been effective. They rank in the top half of the MLB with a 3.86 era and rarely beat themselves with walks. The Sox staff strikes out roughly 2.5 batters for every walk issued, a number that compares favorably with “pitching rich” teams such as the A’s and Giants. All Stars Carlos Quentin and Paul Konerko highlight the power oriented lineup, although it may be Adam Dunn who will be most responsible for a big second half. The slugger struggled mightily in his first 270 at bats with his new club, and the sooner he can put that behind him, the better this lineup will be. If you are one to trust the back of the baseball card, Dunn is due for a HUGE second half, and could prove instrumental in catching the Tigers.
Gavin Floyd gets the ball in game 1 and looks to snap out of a funk. He hasn’t recorded a victory in his last 6 starts, with an 0-4 record to go with his 6.14 era. Edwin Jackson opposes Scherzer on Saturday in a game in which I am putting the over/under for strikeouts at 16. Both pitchers throw hard and are good at putting batters away once they are ahead in the count. Look for a HR to be the difference in this game, as one of the many reckless swings figured to make contact. The inconsistent Jake Peavy will pitch the finale, and has a good chance to steal a game. The injury riddled Peavy should benefit from the rest he gained at the all star break and, when healthy, has the pitches to deliver a gem at any time. Lately control has been an issue, but if he can stay reasonably close, he will have a chance to succeed on Sunday.
Final Word: The Tigers hold a sizable lead in season OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), .746 compared to .704. Getting on base, and then taking advantage of opportunities is key, especially against the strikeout heavy pitchers in this series
Soppe Score: I’ve got the Tigers taking 2 out of the 3 games in this series. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in the series, and maybe in the majors right now, and the Tiger bats simply are hotter at this moment. If the power bats from Chicago turn it on, I could see them maybe winning 2 next time they play, in roughly 10 days, but not this time. Verlander on extended rest and lack of dimensions from the White Sox offense makes this Detroit’s series to lose.
Kyle, very good synopsis and sound conclusion. As a ChiSox backer, I fear the Tigers will sweep the punchless Palehose and immediately put them out of the race. On the other hand, I say “Bring it on!” cuz we have to beat these guys if we’re gonna do anything in the division.
Verlander will slice them up though … probably a shutout. Tigers are essentially already up 1-0 going to game 2.
Vegas puts the over/under on combined Adam Dunn+Alex Rios strikeouts for the 3 games at 12. Ouch.
Did DET’s Carbrera injure himself during the All Star game?
I agree very much with your view as a ChiSox fan, you have to want the Tigers, it’s the only way you catch them. And if Verlander lets up in the second half, i like your Sox as much as any of the teams that are 5 or more games back in any division. That is a big if though.
Ill take the UNDER on that one, but move it to 11.5 and you might have me, haha
Miggy left the All Star game as a precaution and doesn’t expect to miss any time. If he were to miss time, I would like the Sox lineup just as much if not more than that of Detroit. Yet another big if
Don’t look now, but Verlander might have lost the auto in his automatic.
wowww. well the guess was 2 outta 3, but i was taking tonights game for granted. Verlander with an unimpressive start, thats a shock. Huge win for Wally’s Sox, lets see if they can keep it goin throughout the weekend
I’m shocked. Verlander has absolutely owned the WhiteSox until last night. Maybe it will be a totally different second half? I think I saw Adam Dunn actually get a hit!
Well this series hasn’t gone as planned. Impressed with the White ability to battle. They proved worthy of being considered a threat in this division for the long haul … next up on Tale of the Tape, the weekend series featuring the Yankees and Rays
* and of course by weekend, i meant weekday series
Looking forward to it.
Now, if the ChiSox could just get this last one vs DET today for the sweep …
I’ll gladly eat some crow, and they will likely be a legit contender.
Yes Wally, and you’ll also have to eat some crow for prematurely anointing Justin Verlander as the best pitcher since Johan Santana. I know that’s not what you said, but I’d say Santana is the last example of a pitcher who, for a few years, was indisputably the best in baseball. I could be exaggerating a little, but that’s my recollection.
Today, there are a number of pitchers who could be argued for that distinction (Halladay, Lee, Verlander, King Felix, Sabathia). All it takes is for one of them to have a rough stretch and there’s a new King of the Hill. I’m not ready to anoint Verlander just yet.
It’s one game, Chas. Sometimes you just don’t have it on a given day. Something tells me Verlander will bounce back. No crow for that yet … let’s see how the season plays out.
Since Chas brought it up, Wally I have a favor to ask. Could you write a piece criticizing the Red Sox and Carl Crawford for that deal? Red Sox Nation thanks you in advance.
Wrong Justin you’re discussing here, fellas. Justin Masterson is clearly the best pitcher in the game today.
Alright, no crow is necessary based on the one game, but you were still way premature in ranking Verlander ahead of some way more established pitchers.
Looks like Doc Halladay is no longer the best pitcher in baseball THIS WEEK either 😉