Dan “Chas” McCloskey
The old school types were up in arms over the fact that Felix Hernandez, and his 13-12 won-loss record, won the American League Cy Young Award last year. One of them actually went so far as to use some ridiculous argument about the morale of a pitcher’s teammates when he takes the mound, and that when players make great defensive plays behind one pitcher and not another, it is not an accident.
Think about this for a second. The pitcher whose ERA—a measure of the number of earned runs per nine innings he allows, in case the author of the aforementioned article needs some reminding—was a half run better than anybody else in the league apparently didn’t instill enough confidence in his teammates for them to play to the fullest extent of their abilities. Honestly, if this was the case—that his teammates were only playing half-heartedly behind him—then Hernandez was even more deserving of the Cy Young Award.
But, that’s not really my point.
My point is we don’t need to look any further than this past Friday’s contest between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox to see one of the worst applications of won-loss credit there could possibly be.
John Lackey pitched five innings, allowing six earned runs on seven hits and two walks, while striking out just two, and “earned” the win. Bartolo Colon pitched 4 1/3 innings, allowing one earned and one unearned run on two hits and one walk, while striking out five, and was tagged with the loss.
Lackey spotted the Yankees two runs in the top of the 1st inning, just what an 0-6 team needed as a morale boost. When Dustin Pedroia cut that deficit in half with a solo homer in the bottom of the inning, Lackey promptly gave one back.
But, Lackey’s teammates’ increased confidence from seeing him on the mound resulted in a five-run rally in the bottom of the 2nd, giving the Red Sox a nice 6-3 lead and knocking Yankees starter Phil Hughes—I’ll get to him later—out of the game.
What did Lackey do with this newfound advantage? He proceeded to squander it, one run at a time over the next three innings.
But, of course, his teammates were bolstered by the confidence of having him on their side, and scored the go-ahead unearned run in the bottom of the 5th. That development is what resulted in Lackey being credited with the first win of the 2011 season for the Red Sox. Now, if you look up clutch pitching performances following six-game losing streaks to start the season in Merriam-Webster, I’m quite certain you’ll see a photo of John Lackey right next to its definition.
Bartolo Colon came into a game that his team trailed 6-3 after two innings, and were looking at needing seven innings out of their bullpen to have a chance to win the game. He proceeded to pitch shutdown baseball for four innings—allowing only an unearned run—and giving his team exactly what they needed to claw back into the contest. If not for said unearned run, the score would have been tied following his fourth inning of work.
But, I suppose we could make the argument here that Colon’s three-plus innings of shutout baseball up to the point of the defensive miscue just weren’t enough of a morale boost to his team. So, essentially the error was, in fact, his fault.
Then, to begin his fifth inning, he gave up a bunt single to the Red Sox third-place hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, a tactic employed by such a dangerous hitter due to the Yankees’ use of an extreme shift to the right side of the field. When Colon was subsequently pulled from the game, with a runner on first and one out, that runner eventually came around to score, resulting in the only earned run Colon was charged with.
But, Colon gave up the run that put the Red Sox in the lead for good, and everyone knows that’s the most important run of the game. Everyone also knows that great pitchers find ways to avoid giving up those runs, something that Phil Hughes did masterfully on this day.
Yes, that’s right, Hughes earned the right not to be charged with the loss by strategically giving up a bunch of runs early and getting the heck out of there before a decision could be rendered. Hughes gave up six earned runs in two innings, and Colon gave up one earned run—one that easily could have been stranded by the pitcher who relieved him—in 4 1/3 innings, yet Colon is considered the losing pitcher.
But, of course, wins and losses are the true measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness.
Gee, Chas …. feeling the need to vent?? Quit beating around the bush and tell us how you REALLY feel about wins and losses!
Since when do you even care about old school types and what they think? Be the master of your domain!
I’m not sure anyone around here is gonna argue with you too much about Felix deserving the Cy Young. Chillax, dude.
Well, you can use one game to show the weakness of statistics, and I can see your points, but what would you suggest as an alternative? You could award points to a pitcher for outs and strikeouts, take away points for hits and walks, and multiply that times era or whatever.
If stats weren’t skewed or open to debate, then it’d be a lot quieter around these parts.
Chas
Great work! I saw parts of this game and thought Lackey must have mistakenly thought he was pitching bp. I heard him described this morning as “iron Mike” – like the pitching machine that grooves the ball. Despite all that he gets the win. Yeah, that makes sense.
Chillax? Are we advertising a laxative on Pickin Splinters???
Chas – great stuff dude. Watching the game on Friday, I was thinking about how the offense for Sox bailed out Lackey. To me that personifies a “cheap” win if you will.
On the other hand, Lester earlier in the week pitched 7 or 8 scoreless innings against the Indians. 10 more similar outings with similar results by both pitchers and it is probably Lackey that people will talk about being in the All-Star game.So I couldn’t agree with you more.
Then again, I was worried the same thing was going to happen last night with Dice-K, but instead the Sox pitching staff just threw batting practice to Tampa batters. Hopefully that was enough of Dice-K in the rotation.
Wally, I understand that you’re concerned about my mental health, and I appreciate it. Thank you. But, in reality, I just got on a sarcastic roll and went with it.
Bill, as Smitty so aptly provided an example of, there is much more evidence of the weakness of wins and losses as statistics beyond this one game. What I suggest is that we look at the many more relevant statistics that are out there, like ERA+ and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and consider Wins and Losses for their nostalgic value. But, you’re right. All this stuff provides us with much content for debate, and that’s why I write about my opinions.
Casey, Lackey will probably get straightened out, but I don’t know about Dice-K.
Smitty, Dice-K has a tough enough time getting through five innings when he gives up only one or two runs, so he’s not going to rack up many cheap wins any time soon.
Okay … my turn to vent before my head pops off!!! I’m so $#%^*@ ticked off after watching the WhiteSox bullpen blow yet another game. Another 9th inning meltdown, to the A’s this time, leaves the ChiSox at 7-5. They have a pretty good team top to bottom, except apparently for the bullpen. No, obviously the bullpen sucks! And Ozzie Guillen is a moron!!
Three of their five losses have been the “come from ahead” variety where the Sox have a 2-4 run lead going into the 9th. That’s when the #$%^&@ idiot “manager” Guillen continues to make the same mistake time and time again. He’ll yank the starting pitcher who often goes 7-8 masterful innings, with fairly modest pitch counts, to turn it over to his relief corps … only to see them fail time and time again. Why in the hell do you continue to pull an effective starting pitcher to turn it over to someone coming in cold?!?!?! Makes absolutely no $%^&#@ sense to me. 80% of relievers are relievers …. simply cuz the suck!!!! Why hand the ball to someone who’s gonna suck most of the time ???? If they could REALLY pitch, they’d be starters for crisakes!!!!
Really, Ozzie the Moron, it’s OK for a starter to pitch a complete game once in awhile. Trust your dang starters … they got ya to the 9th … let ’em finish!!!! You’ve made the same mistake 4 times in 12 games this season … and you’ve lost 3 of them and were lucky enough to pull one out in extra innings. Does anyone think the WhiteSox are good enough to simply give away 3 games in every 12??? Nooooooooo, they’re certainly not good enough to survive your incompetence as manager. This is just like the last couple of seasons!!!! What a $%& head!!!
Okay … whew … feeling better. Until the Blackhawks game starts.
Bobby Jenks has been one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox so far this season. Just sayin’…
Chas … I see that … it’s early but Jenks has pitched well. Maybe the problem is almost entirely Ozzie Guillen? He goes to the pen way too often as I’ve pointed out and he’s probably berating his underperforming relievers behind the scenes, which isn’t helping either. I don’t know, but if I was managing, I’d leave those starters in to pitch the 9th … or at least start the inning. Nothing gets my ire up more than lifting a starter who just pitched a 1-2-3 8th inning, has a 6 hitter going, and has only thrown 105 pitches or less. C’mon, man!!!!
I thought the same thing about Josh Beckett’s outing on Sunday night. He had retired 14 straight Yankees and his pitch count was at 103 following the 8th inning. The Red Sox had a 4-0 lead and a rested Papelbon. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning, but I questioned the move a little.
The one thing I really don’t know how to factor into it is it being early in the year, and managers knowing their pitchers and their limits when they haven’t yet built up the arm strength they need to reach 120 pitches or so.
I also can’t completely wrap my head around the conundrum over whether pitchers can’t do deep into games anymore because they’re handled with such kid gloves. It’s kind of a catch-22.
It’s as simple as this, Chas. While “wins” may not be the tell-all stat for pitchers, it absolutely is the only stat that really counts for the TEAM. So if you want to win more games, leave your pitchers in the friggin’ game when they’re coasting along … especially the veterans. Or if your middle reliever looked good last inning, keep him in there for the next. Managers’ tendancy to disrupt positive momentum is frightening … at least that’s been the case with Ozzie. Why they want to roll the dice with a new pitcher coming in cold just baffles me, especially all the times they’ve been burned with blown saves.
Staying on this topic, here’s some good stuff today from the Chicago Tribune’s leading sports cynic, Steve Rosenbloom:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-solving-the-white-soxs-closer-problem-20110414,0,297601.column
Apparently, the problem is obvious to EVERYONE, except Ozzie the Idiot.