By Chas
I recently participated in the Hall of Fame voting process for a relatively new group called the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA).
The result of this year’s BBA vote was the recommendation of Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven for the Hall of Fame Class of 2011. I voted for both Alomar and Blyleven, as well as five others, and I was happy to be able to take part in this process. I thought I’d share my votes here, as well as explain my justifications for each, in advance of tomorrow’s official announcement.
Roberto Alomar
Alomar is, undoubtedly, a player who produced a career worthy of first-ballot Hall of Famer status, but fell eight votes short of the 75% needed for induction in his first year of eligibility. Why he didn’t get elected last year is beyond me—well, actually it was likely due to an over-emphasis by voters on the “morality clause”—but there’s very little doubt in my mind he’ll make it this year.
Jeff Bagwell
There’s been a lot of debate in the blogosphere regarding Bagwell and a perceived new McCarthyism being employed by writers who have proclaimed they will not vote for him based on the fact that they suspect—based on no significant evidence—steroid usage. While I don’t have a problem with the idea of waiting a few years to decide on a particular candidate, in this case I wonder what it will take for these writers to be convinced that the lack of evidence exonerates Bagwell.
I’m not going down that road. Bagwell is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer and, as far as I know, nobody has any evidence that he cheated. If any of these writers has anything on him, they should make it public. Otherwise, as far as I’m concerned, I’m judging his career at face value. Unfortunately, I think enough voters are of a different mindset, which means we don’t really know if and when he’ll eventually receive his due.
Bert Blyleven
I’ll admit that it took me a little while to come around on Blyleven, but I think that’s OK. I think voters have a responsibility to remain open-minded and spend a few years reconsidering the borderline candidates they’ve decided against. Personally, that’s what I plan to do with the difficult decisions from the “steroid era.”
The main argument regarding Blyleven is whether or not he was an excellent player, or just merely very good. So, I’ll ask the question: If a player maintains performance that could be described as very good for considerably longer than most of his peers, does that elevate his career to greater than very good?
Personally, I think the combination of Blyleven’s longevity and the fact that he was at least a little underrated during his playing days are the difference between very good and the Hall of Fame. He gets my vote, and he will likely get enough BBWAA votes this year to get in.
Barry Larkin
I usually don’t use these awards as arguments, but Larkin won nine National League Silver Sluggers between 1988 and 1999. Meanwhile, a fellow named Ozzie Smith was winning all the Gold Gloves. Then, in 1993, Smith turned 38, and Larkin won three of his own from 1994 to 1996. He also was named to 12 All-Star teams.
Plus, he’s 10th all-time among shortstops in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and two of the players ahead of him are Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. That means there are 16 Hall of Fame shortstops behind him on the list. So, why did he only receive 51.6% of the vote in his first year on the ballot? I’m not sure, although I think he’ll get in eventually. But, probably not this year.
Edgar Martinez
There are some who refuse to vote for Martinez for the Hall of Fame due to an anti-DH bias. This is a joke. Whether you like it or not, the fact of the matter is the DH is a part of the game, and a legitimate position occupied by players whose teams consider it to be where they offer the most value.
Martinez wasn’t incapable of playing the field. In fact, when he did play the field, he was no worse than just below average. There are plenty of Hall of Famers who were just-below-average defenders. Martinez was a little older than most when he started playing full-time and suffered a few injuries in his early 30s that resulted in the Mariners’ decision to protect his health by using him as a DH.
Why? Because he was an incredible hitter. So incredible, in fact, that the only argument anyone can use to keep him out of the Hall of Fame is that he wasn’t a “complete player.” Hogwash.
Tim Raines
I don’t think I can make a better case for Raines than I did in my blog two years ago, but I will offer you a short list of the best speed-oriented leadoff hitters in the second half of the 20th century, in my opinion:
1. Rickey Henderson
2. Tim Raines
3. Lou Brock
Henderson and Brock were both first-ballot Hall of Famers. Enough said.
I’m curious to see if there is a significant increase in his support this year, his fourth on the ballot. Regardless, he only received 30.4% of the vote last year, so it’s unlikely he’ll reach 75% anytime soon, if ever.
Alan Trammell
Trammell compares pretty favorably to Larkin, except in his case he was going up against Cal Ripken for the American League Silver Slugger awards. In fact, from 1987 to 1990, Trammell won three out of four, while Ripken was in his prime. He also won four Gold Gloves, was named to six All-Star teams, and is 11th all-time among shortstops in WAR. Regardless, he’s a lost cause, having received just 22.4% of the vote last year, his ninth on the ballot.
I could probably write another post entirely about the candidates I didn’t vote for, but I’ll try to be brief.
The case for Jack Morris is largely based on his win totals and his defining moment, the 10-inning shutout he pitched in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. I’m sorry, but those arguments are not enough for me to support a pitcher who only had one year in his entire career with an ERA+ of better than 130 (30% better than average). Blyleven had six by comparison, and people say he wasn’t dominant enough.
Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro fall into the category of difficult decisions from the steroid era. I’ve written before that I think players from this period need to be viewed on a case-by-case basis, and I’m still deciding on these guys.
Lee Smith, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy and Harold Baines are all players who have very good careers, but fall short of Hall of Fame status to me.
There are a few first ballot candidates who I need to take a closer look at before deciding, most notably Larry Walker. I hope the real voters are of the same mindset, judging by the fact that only 1 of 18 ESPN writers voted for him, which happens to be the same number who voted for B.J. Surhoff.
Regardless of the outcome, I’m eagerly counting down the hours to tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET.
Great post, Chas! I, too, support Blyleven for election … I think it’s long overdue for him. His curveball was one of the best all-time.
Houston is rooting like hell for Bagwell to make it since a) his career probably warrants it (I agree) and b) nobody is yet in the HoF wearing an Astros cap. Bagwell should be the first and then ultimately joined by Craig Biggio.
Tell us more about Larkin … I’m not yet convinced, but close.
Is Edgar Martinez that much better than Harold Baines??
Uggh I hate this.. but I agree with Wally – nice job Chas!!
Roberto Alomar too me should be in the Hall of Fame, as well as Blyleven.
I am trying to see where there was even a shred of inclination that Bags was even a potential steroid user? Is this going to be a product of that era – any guy that hits 300 or 400 home runs is automatically suspect?
I read an interesting article ( not sure which ESPN writer ) about making a case for Larry Walker for the Hall of Fame.. I just don’t see it. I put him in the Hall of Very Good… but not the Hall of Fame..
Edgar Martinez is one of only 16 players in history with a career OBP of .400 or higher and a career slugging percentage of .500 or higher. And that’s not a product of his era either, because his career OPS+ is 147, 39th all-time. Harold Baines (career OPS: 120) was one of the best DHs in the history of the position. Edgar Martinez was the best…well, until Frank Thomas stopped playing first base.
Larkin was the best all-around shortstop in the game during his time…he was a better fielder than Cal Ripken, and a much better hitter than Ozzie Smith. And, he stole 377 career bases, and was successful 83% of the time.
Thanks for the left-handed compliment, Smitty. 🙂
People talk about body changes and show before/after pictures when it comes to Bagwell. Of course, it’s not possible for someone to do all that through legitimate weight training.
I think Walker has a really good case for the Hall. People want to hold the fact that he played in Colorado against him, but his lifetime OPS+ is 140, he won 7 Gold Gloves, and is one of the 16 guys with career OBP of .400 and slugging percentage of .500.
But Smitty is left-handed. 🙂
Barry Larkin is to Ozzie Smith as Ron Santo was to Brooks Robinson.
That’s a pretty good comparison, Casey, although I would say that the offensive gap between Larkin and Ozzie is greater than the offensive gap between Santo and Robinson.
Good point about Smitty’s left-handedness.
Here’s why Barry Larkin simply cannot … must not … be admitted to the Hall of Fame: HE’S A MICHIGAN SKUNKBEAR, for crisakes!!!!
He’ll NEVER get my vote.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Oh … an update … this just in … Michigan WANTS to fire RichRod, but they’re not sure they can. Can’t find anyone to take the job, so they don’t want to be without a coach. Either way, recruiting’s gonna suffer … and I love it!! Tee hee, tee hee 🙂
So, I guess that means you wouldn’t vote for Tom Brady either? Go get ’em, Smitty!
The anti-climactic thing about today’s announcement is that I pretty much know what the outcome’s going to be. I’ve been reading tons of articles and blogs, and have heard that one blogger’s been keeping track of all the sportswriters who have revealed their votes.
It’s pretty much a definite that Blyleven and Alomar will get in, and nobody else. The only surprise I could see happening is Blyleven falling a couple votes short. I think Alomar being left off last year was just a combination of writers who dislike him and those who won’t vote for a first-ballot guy. The votes of those from the latter group will easily be enough for him to get elected this year.
Well said about Edgar. I never understood how him playing DH should hinder his status. The guy played a position that is mandated by the games rules and he is penalized for it? Hogwash as you say.
That was tongue in cheek, of course, on Larkin … I tend to forgive and forget these players’ poor decisions to attend Michigan after they’ve been gone awhile. Both HoFers!
Chas — can we get a side-by-side comparison of Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez and Harold Baines with a Hall of Famer who is “similar” ?
I think Bagwell should be elected to the Hall just for being able to produce those terrific numbers using that “Squatting-to-Crap-in-the-Woods” batting stance of his. (see photo above). Yes … I believe that’s what it’s called.
Bagwell got 41% of the votes … feels like that’s a pretty good start for the first year, but I’m no expert. Chas … should he be “pleased” with that initial support?
It’s hard to say someone should be “pleased” with 41%, it shows that maybe he’s not being treated the same way as McGwire and Palmeiro. Plus, next year is a weak year for new candidates. Bernie Williams seems to be the best new name. So, I think 41% this year bodes well for his chances to climb the ladder.
I’ll try to do your requested side-by-side comparison at some point, but I have bad news for you, Wally. Harold Baines got less than 5% and fell of the ballot. Edgar Martinez’s support went down too, from 36% to 33%, which kind of bums me out.
Other guys who dropped off the ballot: John Franco, Kevin Brown, John Olerud. I think those are the three best one-and-dones, although Tino Martinez got two more votes than Olerud. B.J. Surhoff got two votes. He had a five-year run where he was pretty good, but I don’t know if I even vote for him for the Hall of Pretty Good, which is a couple steps below the Hall of Very Good. 🙂
Well … to be perfectly honest, I kinda doubt Baines is a HoFer … but the only way to objectively evaluate the question (for anyone) is to put their accomplishments within the context of others who have been elected and those who are perceived to be close.
Subjectively, Baines was a cornerstone piece of the WhiteSox for many years and since they have so few “modern HoFers”, I just want to make sure he gets a fair shake. He was a real pro and class act … a quiet fan favorite on the Southside.
Chas & gang —
Check out this SI cover photo of Dick Allen from 1972.
https://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/8284/index.htm
I remember as a kid, most of the mystique/legend surrounding Dick Allen was that he seemed so big and strong (and “cool”) compared to almost all other players. He reportedly swung the heaviest bat in the majors (by far). Now keep in mind the photo is from 1972 … pre-roids, and for the most part, pre-weight training. This guy looks like one of today’s NFL linebackers. I remember some clothesline HRs he hit that left the park in like a second. Okay … so it’s a bromance … but no wonder this guy could hit 35 HRs and steal 30 bags. Chas alerted me to his stats last week and he really does seem worthy of HoF consideration.