Pickin’ Splinters MLB Preview 2009: The Senior Circuit

In this first of a two-part Pickin’ Splinters series previewing the 2009 Major League Baseball season, Chas will be discussing each of the 16 teams in the National League. Tomorrow, Smitty will be providing some analysis of the American League.

NL East

Any discussion of the NL East has to begin with the defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies. The only significant change between this year’s team and last year’s is the replacement of left fielder Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez. Their offense remains formidable, especially with Chase Utley returning sooner than expected from off-season hip surgery. If Ryan Howard can put together a more consistent season than last year, their lineup could be terrifying, as Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth appear to have the potential to get even better. Jimmy Rollins, of course, is the catalyst at the top of the order. The Phillies’ major question mark is their starting rotation. Cole Hamels is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but Brett Myers and Joe Blanton have consistently underachieved, and Jamie Moyer is 45. Also, not to take anything away from Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson, but it’s hard to believe that the bullpen will be as dominant as it was last year, and the loss of J.C. Romero (steroids suspension) for 50 games doesn’t help matters either.

The Florida Marlins have never gone six consecutive years without winning a World Series. If they don’t win it all this year, it will be a record championship drought for the team. I’m sure Cubs fans are not at all sympathetic. While they probably aren’t strong enough to win the Series, don’t rule out the possibility that the Fish could contend. The top three in their rotation–Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad and Josh Johnson–have the potential to remind folks of Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and Carl Pavano. Their lineup is not overly impressive, but–even beyond Hanley Ramirez–there’s some exciting young talent in Cameron Maybin, Dan Uggla, Cody Ross and Emilio Bonifacio. The bullpen could be their downfall, though, with closer Matt Lindstrom questionable with a shoulder injury for the start of the season, and Scott Proctor–their only other experienced reliever–likely beginning the season on the DL.

The New York Mets not only addressed their biggest weakness in the offseason, they converted it to one of their strengths. Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz should team to be the best 1-2 bullpen combination in baseball. Add to that a lineup–paced by Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado–that’s never had trouble scoring runs, and a rotation headed by the best starting pitcher in baseball–Johan Santana–and the Mets should undoubtedly be in the mix of playoff contenders in 2009. The only serious questions are the depth of the rotation and whether or not the team’s two consecutive late-season collapses are an indication of the club’s character-or lack thereof.

Four-fifths of the rotation for the Atlanta Braves is new to the team. Well, new this year, that is, as Tom Glavine returns for his swan song as the fifth starter. The revamped rotation of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, Jair Jurrjens–the only returning starter–and Glavine is a potential strength. Beyond that, the rest of the team is going to have to overachieve for the Braves to be competitive. The lineup–led by Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur–is solid but unspectacular, and the bullpen–beyond Mike Gonzalez–is a big question mark, especially the health and consistency of Rafael Soriano.

The Washington Nationals have some exciting young hitters, particularly Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Jesus Flores and Ryan Zimmerman. That alone gives them something to look forward to this year. Unfortunately for the Nationals, neither their starting rotation nor their bullpen provide much reason for optimism, other than the fact that most of the pitchers filling those roles are young and unproven, but with much less upside than the Marlins’ young staff.

NL Central

In the Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates have finished below .500 for 16 consecutive seasons, and they’re going to have a tough time avoiding the dubious distinction of the longest such streak in professional sports history. Their lineup includes only two players–Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche–who have ever hit 20 home runs in a season, and their bullpen lacks depth beyond Matt Capps and John Grabow. They do have four young arms in a rotation that is a potential future strength, but it is doubtful that Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ian Snell and Ross Ohlendorf will be good enough for the Pirates to even get a whiff of playoff contention this year.

It’s become pretty much an annual rite of late to ponder the question of whether this will finally be “the year” for the Chicago Cubs. They finished 2008 with the best record in the National League, then were promptly swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers. The only explanation for why they traded Mark DeRosa in the offseason is they were selling high in anticipation of a drop-off in performance after a career year. The addition of Milton Bradley makes their lineup–which already included Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto–even more impressive, but certainly weakens their defense. Bradley will make the switch from being primarily a DH to a full-time right fielder, a change that means the Cubs will be platooning a couple of corner outfielders–Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson–in center. The departure of Kerry Wood has to weaken the bullpen a little, even if Carlos Marmol–who was quite possibly the best setup man in baseball last year–eventually takes over the closer’s role from newcomer Kevin Gregg. Otherwise, the Cubs look to be just as strong as last year’s version, and if Rich Harden can actually produce the first 200-inning season of his career, this team could…no, I’m not going to say it.

The four remaining teams in the Central are all quite intriguing in that they all have some potential to contend, but their seasons could just as easily turn out disastrous. Although the Milwaukee Brewers will be hurt by the departures of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the emergence of Yovanni Gallardo has the potential to soften the blow. If a Jake Peavy trade can be pulled off, they could find themselves right back where they left off last year. The offense–powered by Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy–should be among the NL’s best. One of the keys to their season will be if Trevor Hoffman–despite starting the season on the DL–can stabilize a bullpen that rivaled the Mets’ in futility last year.

There is one huge key to the outlook for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. That is, can Chris Carpenter–who’s pitched only 21 major league innings in the last two years–return to his 2004-06 form? He’s been impressive this spring, but remaining healthy for an entire season is a different story. Last year’s team was one of the majors’ biggest overachievers without Carpenter, so they have to be optimistic about what they can accomplish if their ace truly is back. But, they did overachieve last year, so another big question is are they really as good as they played in 2008? More specifically, is Ryan Ludwick (.299, 37 HR, 113 RBI) for real? If not, Albert Pujols will have to carry the offense, which he’s more than capable of doing, but he could certainly use some help, as the rest of the lineup isn’t all that impressive. Defense is a big question mark too, with converted outfielder Skip Schumaker and newcomer Khalil Greene forming a brand new double play combination, and an outfield that may be the worst in the league.

The Houston Astros are another team that overachieved last year, surprisingly remaining in the wild card race until the season’s final weeks. They return a strong offense, led by Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence. The bullpen is a strength as well, with Jose Valverde–having emerged in the last couple years as one of the NL’s top closers–supported by Doug Brocail and LaTroy Hawkins. Other than staff ace Roy Oswalt, though, the starting pitching is a major question mark. The Astros are hoping that veterans Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz still have something left in the tank, and that Wandy Rodriguez can build on a solid 2008.

The Cincinnati Reds boast three of last year’s top five in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Two of those players–first baseman Joey Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce–lead a somewhat power deficient offense that includes second baseman Brandon Phillips in the cleanup spot. The Reds’ third potential second year phenom, Edinson Volquez, is a significant part of what happens to be one of the team’s strengths: starting pitching. With Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, the Reds have a potentially strong rotation, which makes them a candidate to be one of the surprise teams of 2009.

NL West

Out West, it seems likely that the Los Angeles Dodgers will improve on their 84-win season of 2008. Given the state of the division, that could be enough to take first place, and despite the departures of starting pitchers Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux, the Dodgers would still have to be considered one of the favorites. Their offense clearly is the class of the division, with a strong cast that includes Rafael Furcal, James Loney, Andre Ethier and Russell Martin supporting Manny Ramirez. The question, though, is do they have enough starting pitching after Chad Billingsley? It may be enough to win the weakest division in the NL, but going deep into the postseason is another story.

There are two teams in the West who clearly have stronger rotations than Los Angeles. The Arizona Diamondbacks boast probably the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. The duo combined for 38 wins and almost 400 strikeouts in over 440 innings of work last year. But, the Diamondbacks will only go as far as Webb and Haren can carry them, and that may be too heavy a load for their dual aces. There’s potential for improvement in their young offense, but there’s also a lot of potential for frustration with a lineup that includes–in Mark Reynolds and Chris Young–two of last year’s top six in the majors in strikeouts. There’s also the question of a bullpen that–other than a washed up Tom Gordon–includes no one with any considerable experience at closing out games. Still, if Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch and Tony Pena are able to get the job done, and some of their young hitters take steps in the right direction, Arizona could have enough to make a run at the post-season.

The San Francisco Giants will have to rely on their starting pitching to an even greater extent than the Diamondbacks. The addition of future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson to a rotation that already included reigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, former AL award winner Barry Zito, and Matt Cain, is a move that shouldn’t be taken lightly. But, the Giants could easily have the weakest lineup in all of baseball, as evidenced by the fact that Bengie Molina is slated to be their cleanup hitter. So, unless Lincecum is as phenomenal as last year, Cain lives up to his potential, and Johnson and Zito turn back the clock seven years, the best this team can realistically hope for is a .500 finish.

The Colorado Rockies have little reason to be optimistic this year, and the most excitement fans in San Diego have to look forward to is the anticipation of what bounty they can get in exchange for Jake Peavy, when they eventually trade him. The Rockies will still score some runs–despite the trade of Matt Holliday to Oakland–but other than Ubaldo Jimenez, there’s not much else to be excited about. Jimenez leads a pitching staff that has made no significant changes following a season in which they finished 15^th in the National League in ERA, a fact that can’t entirely be blamed on Coors Field, considering they were 13^th in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The last time I checked those outcomes had little to do with the ballpark. Huston Street–obtained from Oakland in the Holliday deal–is the new closer, and he and Manny Corpas make for a solid bullpen duo, but it remains to be seen how many games they’ll have the chance to close out.

As I already mentioned, it’s hard to get very excited about the San Diego Padres this year. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is an emerging star, but he can’t carry the lineup alone, and there isn’t much of a supporting cast. Of course, Peavy is among the game’s best starting pitchers, and Chris Young has always had the talent to be a solid #2, but if this team–that many consider the worst in baseball–finishes any higher than last place, Bud Black should win Manager of the Year.